Bullish bettors took a long-term approach yesterday with The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX: sentiment, chart, options). During the course of the session, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) bought to open 1,742 calls on BX, compared to just 35 puts. A closer look at the day's activity reveals that call speculators set their sights on the equity's March 2010 series.
Specifically, BX's March 16 call saw 7,225 contracts cross the tape, with 68% of these calls trading at the ask price. Implied volatility rose 0.3% as a result, and open interest at this strike surged overnight by 6,361 contracts. The 16-strike call is now home to a total of 7,767 contracts, establishing it as the site of peak call open interest for the March 2010 series.
The bias toward bullish bets has been steadily increasing in BX's option pits, with the stock's 10-day ISE call/put volume ratio most recently arriving at 8.47. Not only does this ratio reveal that calls bought to open have easily outnumbered puts during the past two weeks, it also ranks higher than about 72% of other such readings taken within the previous year. In other words, traders on this exchange have snapped up calls over puts at a faster pace less than 30% of the time.
In keeping with this upbeat attitude, BX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) checks in today at 0.51, with calls nearly doubling puts among options set to expire within three months. This ratio ranks in the paltry 14th annual percentile, as short-term speculators have rarely been more optimistically aligned.
These high expectations for BX are highlighted by the security's near-term open interest configuration. Peak call open interest for November rests at the out-of-the-money 15 strike, with 6,475 contracts outstanding. Meanwhile, in the December series, peak call open interest of 22,392 contracts is docked at the deeper out-of-the-money 17 strike.
By contrast, put open interest is relatively thin. The November 15 strike carries peak put open interest of just 2,562 contracts, while the December 18 put is home to 6,100 open positions. This bias toward in-the-money puts and out-of-the-money calls underscores the fact that not many speculators are expecting the shares to slide during the coming months.
Elsewhere, short sellers have been backing away from their bearish bets on BX. Short interest on the equity plummeted by almost 16% during the past month, and shorted shares now account for just 1.7% of the stock's available float.
Sentiment is growing increasingly bullish toward BX as the firm prepares for its earnings report, which is due to hit Wall Street one week from today. Ahead of the event, analysts are expecting the company to record a profit of 15 cents per share, which would mark a significant improvement from its year-ago loss of 44 cents per share. BX has exceeded consensus expectations in each of its previous two quarterly reports, which might have inspired some traders to place new bullish bets in advance of next Friday's earnings.
From a technical perspective, BX is working hard to maintain its year-to-date gains. The stock has recently broken below support from its 50-day moving average, and is currently struggling to maintain a perch above its 80-day trendline.
If the security does slide beneath its 80-day moving average, BX's 20-week trendline could emerge as an alternative source of support. Since mid-March, the stock has finished just one week below this intermediate-term moving average.
Heading into next week's earnings report, it looks like BX needs to come up with some seriously impressive numbers in order to satisfy the Street's bullish expectations. A failure to live up to investors' high hopes could translate to a sharp sell-off, potentially pressuring the shares south of key technical support. From a contrarian perspective, traders should proceed with caution ahead of BX's earnings.
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