Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO: sentiment, chart, options) has been attracting the attention of pessimistic option players lately. During the past five days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) bought to open 2,644 puts on the oil issue, compared to just 148 calls. The stock's five-day ISE put/call volume ratio of 17.86 highlights the current popularity of bearish bets over their bullish counterparts.
In fact, on Wednesday alone, put volume on MRO surged to 176% the usual level. The day's most active strike was the November 30 put, where 2,064 contracts crossed the tape. About 68% of these puts traded at the ask price, pointing to buying activity, and implied volatility rose 2.1% as a result. Open interest on the November 30 put rose overnight from 1,153 contracts to 2,135 contracts, confirming that new pessimistic positions were added here yesterday.
Taking a slightly longer-term look at MRO's option volume, it turns out that puts have rarely been in greater demand. The equity sports a 10-day ISE put/call volume ratio of 3.06, with puts bought to open more than tripling calls during the past two weeks. This reading ranks higher than 99.2% of comparable readings taken within the previous year, suggesting a near-peak of bearishly skewed speculation.
This negative attitude is also reflected in MRO's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which arrived today at 0.68. This marks the SOIR's highest perch since late August, which means that short-term option traders are more pessimistically aligned toward the shares now than at any other time during the past couple of months.
In the front-month series, peak put open interest of 4,312 contracts lies at the 33 strike. MRO is trading narrowly above $33 at last check, indicating that front-month put players aren't expecting too drastic a decline during the short term. However, the sudden surge in volume at the November 30 put on Wednesday could suggest that a few bolder bears are making their way into MRO's option pits.
Meanwhile, the most popular call in the November series is the 37 strike, with 7,504 contracts in residence. With the equity's annual high docked at $35.71, it seems that some speculators are still harboring high hopes for the shares. On the other hand, it's possible that some of this open interest was seller-initiated, with call writers wagering that MRO will remain stuck beneath long-term resistance in the mid-30s.
From a technical perspective, MRO doesn't quite seem deserving of the recent onslaught of bearish speculation -- but it's not exactly leading the market higher, either. Year-to-date, the equity has added a modest 18.5%, barely outpacing the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) comparable gain of 17.5%.
Since late March, MRO has enjoyed the support of its 10-week and 32-week moving averages. These trendlines have collaborated to contain all of the stock's weekly closes in the intervening months, and this double-barreled backstop shows no signs of weakening.
However, there is the matter of resistance in the mid-30s, as mentioned previously. MRO hasn't closed a single month above $34 since September 2008, and its annual high looms just overhead near $36. Plus, resistance from the security's 20-month moving average is dropping through the $35 level, adding another hurdle to block MRO's path higher.
With this veritable gauntlet of resistance levels hovering overhead, it's possible that put players are betting on MRO to retreat once again from this technical ceiling. And, of course, it also bears mentioning that MRO is set to take the earnings spotlight next Tuesday, Nov. 3. The company has missed expectations in each of the previous two quarters, so skeptical traders could be trying to capitalize on another quarterly disappointment.
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