Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
~ Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking

The above quote has been reiterated numerous times in our publications because of its ability to succinctly capture the essence of contrarian thinking. While simple in theory, the task of capturing the prevailing sentiment can be as elusive as defining the boundaries of a cloud. The closer you get to it, the harder it is to see.(More)

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Apple Inc. Lures More Bulls to the Bandwagon

Posted on 3/9/2010 3:52 PM

Publication: "Fortune"
Publication title: "5 Reasons to buy Apple stock again"
Publication Date: 3/9/2010

KeyWords: AAPL 

Brief Summary:

Though some would argue that Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) long-term journey higher may be coming to an end, this Fortune blog lists five reasons why the stock may have more fuel in its tank.

Citing Bob Turner, Chief Investment Officer of Turner Investments, the columnist first points out the rampant growth of tech-related spending. Turner estimates that technology spending could be about double the GDP, "growing in the range of 8% to 10%" thanks to "must-have products like the iPhone, a booming app store, and [Apple's] increasingly popular notebooks."

On that note, the blogger calls Apple "the most innovative company in the world," pointing to its always-packed stores and the firm's ability to "create a need" rather than meet demand. Plus, Turner says, the company hasn't even maxed out the iPhone's market share, with "only about 3% of total handsets sold now."

Furthermore, Apple's earnings growth has been "phenomenal," Turner argues, noting the company's compound annual earnings growth rate of more than 85% over the last seven years. In that same vein, the investment manager points out that AAPL is trading at 17 times the 2010 consensus earnings estimate, and 15 times the 2011 estimate, making its price-to-earnings ratio "attractive" even when the security is trading well above $200 per share.


Contrarian Takeaway:

On the other hand, one could argue that AAPL's bullish bandwagon may be getting crowded – often a bearish signal, from a contrarian standpoint. Though the shares of AAPL tagged a new all-time high of $225 today, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently rests at a lofty 70, verging on "overbought" territory.

Plus, according to Zacks, 35 of the 38 ranking analysts already deem AAPL a "buy" or better rating – 30 of which consist of "strong buy" endorsements. In addition, Thomson Reuters pegs the average 12-month price target on the stock at $255.05 – nearly 30 points above the equity's new all-time acme. This extreme bullish bias among the brokerage bunch leaves little room for upbeat analyst attention to help fuel the stock's rally.

In similar fashion, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.98 ranks in the 34th percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more optimistically aligned toward AAPL only 34% of the time during the past year.

In conclusion, while Apple's fundamental backdrop appears solid, the security's sentiment backdrop may leave contrarian investors questioning how much – or little – room is left in the bullpen.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


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Will Disappointed Qualcomm Inc. Bulls Look Elsewhere?

Posted on 3/8/2010 9:26 AM

Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "And the iPhone Goes to..."
Publication Date: 3/8/2010

KeyWords: QCOM 

Brief Summary:

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) shares have careened lower from their 52-week high of $49.80 on Jan. 8, to Friday's close at $38.76, and this Barron's article places much of the blame on Apple Inc. (AAPL). The iPhone guru was expected to announce a Verizon Wireless (VZ) version of the popular smartphone, one for which QCOM would have made the wireless access chip. When AAPL failed to make such an announcement, investors fled QCOM in droves.

However, the author argues that you shouldn't hang up on QCOM just yet. The company had strong revenue from other handset makers, including Motorola (MOT), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Palm Inc. (PALM), and Nokia Inc. (NOK). Additionally, the article says that strong partnerships with these customers should overshadow reports that average asking prices (ASP), a key sales metric for the industry, are declining for QCOM.

Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder supports this rationale. "We've never been a fan of the blended ASP metric because it is widely misrepresented as a good indicator of price erosion when it is not," says Snyder, who still rates Qualcomm a "buy." In any event, Snyder contends that ASP "will probably improve in June" anyway.


Contrarian Takeaway:

An iPhone contract represents real growth potential for QCOM in a highly competitive industry. So, it's completely understandable that investors hoping for such a contract would jump ship when it became clear that one would not be forthcoming anytime soon. Furthermore, questioning an industry indicator like ASP is fine, I guess, but it doesn't take into account the negative investor reaction to the data.

Judging by QCOM's sentiment backdrop, the stock was due to blow off some steam anyway. Expectations were high heading into the supposed AAPL announcement, and we still haven't seen a real abatement of this excessive optimism. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.63 indicates that calls easily outnumber puts among near-term options. This ratio also arrives lower than 85% of all those taken in the past year, meaning that options traders have been more bullish toward QCOM only 15% of the time during this time frame.

Additionally, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) reveals that calls bought to open nearly tripled puts purchased during the prior two weeks. This rising call-buying activity in the face of QCOM's recently poor technical performance has bearish implications from a contrarian perspective.

Wall Street analysts also pose a significant problem for the equity. According to Zacks, 27 of the 33 brokerage firms following QCOM rate the shares a "buy" or better. What's more, Thomson Reuters reports that the consensus price target for QCOM sits at $49.77 per share, a premium of 28% to Friday's close. Any downgrades or price-target cuts could exacerbate the stock's current downtrend.

Technically speaking, QCOM rebounded more than 5% last week, but the shares are staring up at several potential hurdles. First, the shares much overcome resistance at their 80-month moving average, which is currently perched at 39.47. The shares had trouble with this trendline in January and February 2009, and it could create a barrier for any advances heading forward. What's more, the round-number 40 level is home to long-term support and resistance for QCOM. If the equity fails to overcome these technical hurdles, we could see bullish investors abandon their positions for greener pastures.

Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)


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Can Automatic Data Processing Conquer Looming Resistance?

Posted on 3/5/2010 12:53 PM

Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "ADP Could Pay Off for Investors "
Publication Date: 3/4/2010

KeyWords: ADP 

Brief Summary:

This article takes an upbeat look at Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the payroll processor whose monthly employment reports are widely regarded as a bellwether for the jobs market. The author notes that ADP "seems to be weathering tough times well. It has a robust cash flow, virtually no debt, and a continually rising dividend." Since the company is thriving in the face of a challenging economy, this bullish piece suggests that ADP is well-positioned to rise even higher as the employment picture improves.

Even if unemployment remains stubbornly high, says the author, ADP's diversification efforts should pay off. Despite slipping payrolls, the company can continue to sell "nonpayroll-related services, like human resources, outsourcing, and tax and benefits administration." Plus, the firm's dealer-services segment is already enjoying healthy market-share gains. Overall, asserts this optimistic article, ADP's deft management amid a challenging macro environment should pay dividends for investors.


Contrarian Takeaway:

ADP has shown serious mettle on the charts this week. After six consecutive weekly closes beneath its formerly supportive 10-week and 20-week moving averages, the stock has elbowed its way back atop these intermediate-term trendlines. Going forward, these moving averages could resume their previous role as a double-barreled backstop.

Plus, there's a decent supply of pessimism that could unwind to support additional upside. ADP's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio stands at 2.60, as puts bought to open have more than tripled calls during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks in the 94th annual percentile, indicating that traders have rarely purchased bearish bets over bullish at a faster pace.

Going forward, traders will want to keep an eye on ADP's progress near the $45 level. This region has previously acted as resistance, and could rear its head again to thwart the equity's rebound. However, if the shares can extend their positive momentum and conquer this looming technical threat, ADP will be well-positioned to benefit from a shift to the bullish camp.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


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Pessimism Grows Toward Netflix as Stock Soars

Posted on 3/4/2010 8:44 AM

Publication: "MarketWatch"
Publication title: "Netflix investors don't seem to mind a little froth"
Publication Date: 3/4/2010

KeyWords: NFLX 

Brief Summary:

This recent article on MarketWatch takes a closer look at the growing competition that Netflix (NFLX) faces. The stock reached the $70 mark on Wednesday -- a fresh all-time high that was above many analysts' price targets and up a whopping 40% in just five weeks. "Once the stock topped $70, many analysts faced the choice of either raising their price targets -- and justifying a rather generous multiple to clients -- or downgrading the stock." Analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Susquehanna Financial Group and Kaufman Bros. chose to downgrade.

The valuation is a mixed picture. At its current levels, Netflix is trading at about 27 times projected earnings over the next four quarters. While that may be a bargain compared to Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), which trades at about 50 times earnings, Netflix is at a 48% premium to the S&P 500 (SPX) average of 18%.

Analysts remain doubtful. Marianne Wolk, an analyst with Susquehanna, wrote that her downgrade was primarily a valuation call, after its shares reached her price target. "At the current levels, we believe many of the positive attributes of the Netflix story are now better appreciated by investors," she said.

Furthermore, "I have a sell," said Tony Wible, a Janney Montgomery Scott analyst who downgraded Netflix Feb. 23. "It's really based on that fact that you are going to see intensified competition." In the digital world, Netflix is facing rivals such as Apple's iTunes store, Amazon's own online movie business, new pay TV channels, and Comcast Inc.'s impending acquisition of NBC.


Contrarian Takeaway:

Overall, Wall Street is relatively pessimistic toward the shares, as 14 of the analysts following NFLX rate it a "buy" or better, while 17 analysts give it a "hold" or worse, according to Zacks.

Furthermore, options players are giving the stock the cold shoulder. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for NFLX sits at 1.67, as put open interest outnumbers call open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. Furthermore, the ratio falls in the 91st percentile, indicating that traders have been more bearishly aligned toward the shares only 9% of the time during the past year.

The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has also seen an increase in put trading, as 4.5 puts have been purchased to open for every one call purchased to open during the past 10 trading sessions. This ratio of puts to calls is higher than 98.7% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing skepticism.

From a technical perspective, the stock has soared a whopping 22% since the beginning of the year and remains above support at its ascending 10-week and 20-week moving averages. This wealth of pessimism indicates there is still sideline money available that could jump on the stock's bullish bandwagon and power it higher during the near term.

Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)


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Pessimism Dominates a Range-Bound Wal-Mart

Posted on 3/3/2010 8:54 AM

Publication: "CNNMoney.com"
Publication title: "Can Wal-Mart beat the tech giants? No"
Publication Date: 2/23/2010

KeyWords: WMT 

Brief Summary:

A recent article on CNNMoney.com examined Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (WMT) recent attempt to jump into the online movie business with its acquisition of Vudu. However, the article contends: "But once again, Wal-Mart may find it's getting into a crowded market too late." And this isn't the first foray into this field. The retailer launched a movie download service with the help of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) three years ago. It was a flop. Before that, "Wal-Mart tried and failed to out-Netflix Netflix in the online DVD rental business."

Elsewhere, Phil Leigh, an analyst with independent research firm Inside Digital Media, argues that Vudu's offerings of downloadable movies may be too limited. "The Vudu acquisition is a realization that TVs and other entertainment appliances need Internet capability. But on the whole, consumers want unlimited access, not just movies. You can already do this with a Mac mini or Windows-based laptop connected to your TV," Leigh said.

Furthermore, the company faces more competition, as the acquisition follows a partnership announced late last year by Best Buy (BBY) and tech firm Sonic Solutions (SNIC). Best Buy will offer on-demand movies on TVs and other devices through Sonic's Roxio CinemaNow service.

The article concludes by quoting Will Richmond, an analyst with VideoNuze, a Web site that focuses broadband vide., Richmond says, "Consumers are still value conscious and convenience conscious. That's what both Netflix and Redbox cater to nicely. Consumers don't care as much about bells and whistles. They care about getting what they want at a reasonable price when they want it."


Contrarian Takeaway:

Overall, options players are extremely skeptical of the shares of the retailing behemoth. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio comes in at 0.96 - a reading that is higher than 84% of all those taken during the past year.

The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has also seen an increase in put trading recently. The ISE 10-day put/call volume ratio comes in at 0.82, which is higher than 82% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing skepticism.

However, Wall Street is thoroughly enamored of the company, as 21 of the 26 analysts following WMT rate it a "buy" or better. This configuration leaves the shares vulnerable to downgrades.

Technically speaking, the shares of WMT are relatively flat on the year. The stock has been trapped in a sideways channel between support at the 52.50 level and resistance at the 55 level since late November. On the other hand, the stock is perched on support at its 20-week moving average. A bounce off this trendline could shake loose some of the bears, creating a fresh wave of buying pressure that could push the stock out of its current trading range.

Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)


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Will Tata Motors Limited (TTM) Rev Higher as the Bears Hit the Exits?

Posted on 3/2/2010 11:46 AM

Publication: "BusinessWeek"
Publication title: "Jaguar Starts Making Money for Tata Motors"
Publication Date: 3/1/2010

KeyWords: TTM 

Brief Summary:

This BusinessWeek article discusses the ill-timed purchase of British luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) by Tata Motors Limited (TTM) in 2008. The $2.5 billion deal transpired "just before the subprime meltdown hammered demand for high-priced luxury names like Jaguar," the author notes, calling the purchase a "vanity play" by the Indian auto issue. However, the luxury division is finally starting to make money for Tata, thanks to the firm's cost-cutting efforts, improved product line, and a global economy on the mend.

More specifically, the turnaround was reflected in TTM's quarterly earnings report last week, which revealed that JLR made a profit of 4.17 billion rupees, compared to a loss of 11.8 billion rupees a year prior. Thanks, in part, to the rebound in demand for JLR, Tata's overall sales jumped 47% to $5.65 billion, with the company swinging to a quarterly profit of $141 million, compared to a $565 million loss in the year-ago period. The earnings "were significantly ahead of our estimates," noted Morgan Stanley analyst Binay Singh, opining that Tata is "well placed to benefit from a volume recovery" in the luxury car and Indian commercial vehicle markets.

The column concludes by noting Tata's newest executives: Group CEO Carl-Peter Forster, former head of GM Europe, and JLR CEO Ralf Speth, formerly with BMW. As such, "the new talent should help Tata keep the turnaround going overseas, too," states the author, pointing to the firm's 56% increase in India-based sales last month.


Contrarian Takeaway:

While the aforementioned article notes that many Street dwellers are starting to take notice of TTM, the stock's sentiment backdrop reveals that the Indian car concern's bullish bandwagon is far from crowded. Short interest on the equity jumped by 6.2% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for 11.5 million TTM shares. At the security's average trading volume, it would take almost two weeks for all of these bearish bets to unwind.

Furthermore, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.72 ranks in the 74th percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more skeptically skewed toward TTM only 26% of the time during the past 52 weeks.

Technically speaking, the shares of TTM have advanced nearly 600% since flirting with the $3 level in mid-March 2009, guided higher by their 10-week and 20-week moving averages. From a contrarian perspective, a continued show of strength both fundamentally and on the charts could spook the lingering skeptics on the Street. An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits or a significant short-covering boost could act as catalysts even higher for the automaker.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


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Options Players Bet on a Bounce for Oshkosh

Posted on 3/1/2010 10:37 AM

Publication: "Barron’s"
Publication title: "Cavalry May Not Arrive in Time for Oshkosh"
Publication Date: 3/1/2010

KeyWords: OSK 

Brief Summary:

This Barron's article contends that cutbacks in defense spending threaten Oshkosh's (OSK) military truck business, which is the center of the company's earnings strength, and that the U.S. economy is still too weak for the contractor's other units to pick up the slack.

While the U.S. Army recently reaffirmed its award of a key $3 billion, five-year contract to supply as many as 23,000 cargo trucks and trailers for use in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other parts of the world, the article argues that the news isn't good enough to sustain a stock price that has gained 448% over the past 12 months. Furthermore, Steve Barger, an analyst for Keybanc Capital Markets, recently downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy," citing concerns about future earnings in the face of military cutbacks by the Obama administration and the end of the M-ATV program this summer.

Senior analyst Bill Driscoll, of RBM Capital's 1837 Partners, shares some of Barger's worries. He says any further worsening in the current economic environment could push the stock down to the 30 level.

The article closes with the belief that the shares "could lose 20% or more of their value as growth and profits fall in key military markets and other lines of business await a stronger economic recovery."


Contrarian Takeaway:

While this article takes a negative look at the shares, options players remain optimistic. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio comes in at 0.62, as call open interest nearly doubles put open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This reading is also lower than 78% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing optimism.

Furthermore, the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have reported 13 calls purchased to open for every one put purchased to open during the past 10 trading sessions. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 94% of all those taken during the past year.

Technically speaking, the stock has gained more than 2% since the start of the year. However, the equity is struggling to hold above its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. These trendlines have guided the shares higher since April 2009. A breach of these support levels could send the bulls running for cover, creating a fresh wave of selling pressure.

Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)


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Is It Time to Write Off Palm?

Posted on 2/26/2010 2:22 PM

Publication: "BusinessWeek"
Publication title: "Palm Under Pressure After Sales Shortfall"
Publication Date: 2/25/2010

KeyWords: PALM 

Brief Summary:

After slashing its third-quarter revenue forecast on Feb. 25, Palm, Inc. (PALM) has become the subject of heavily bearish scrutiny on Wall Street. The company's Pre smartphone is struggling to compete with such formidable rivals as the BlackBerry and the iPhone, says the author, and many market-watchers now believe that a takeover by a larger tech company is the likeliest outcome for Palm.

However, "finding a buyer won't necessarily be easy," cautions this article, since many potential suitors are wary of the lengthy integration period that would follow a successful buyout bid. Another analyst suggests that Palm could theoretically try to launch a new device to make its mark in the smartphone field, but warns that the company "really only has one shot left."


Contrarian Takeaway:

The last time sentiment was this dire toward PALM was approximately a year ago, prior to the release of the Pre. The stock was hammered in financial publications, and at least one analyst was bold enough to hand out a $0 price target on the struggling security. Of course, as we all know by now, the skeptics were silenced when PALM went on to rally dramatically during the next six months.

And, given the stock's drastic sell-off following the slashed revenue guidance, it's safe to say that there's plenty of pessimism priced into the shares already -- the equity has now given back any and all Pre-related gains. Indeed, short interest on PALM has shot significantly higher since October 2009, suggesting there's no shortage of bears betting on the stock to slide.

Of course, this is not to suggest that it's time to bet on a PALM rebound. Given the rather obvious fundamental and technical concerns, the bears still have momentum on their side. However, it's simply worth noting that this isn't the first time the stock has been left for dead. Traders should keep an eye on PALM this year -- if there's one thing the equity proved in 2009, it's definitely a survivor.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


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Can WebMD Health Corp. (WBMD) Convert the Skeptics?

Posted on 2/25/2010 4:21 PM

Publication: "Barron’s"
Publication title: "The Diagnosis for WebMD Shares"
Publication Date: 2/24/2010

KeyWords: WBMD 

Brief Summary:

While this Barron's article cedes that the shares of WebMD Health Corp. (WBMD) have nearly doubled since March 2009, and that the company may see significant growth in 2010, the author warns that "investors may want to leave this stock in the waiting room."

For starters, the columnist claims the health-focused Web site faces competition from a horde of rivals, and cautions of the "rising political scrutiny of the drug industry's use of online ads." Furthermore, the shares of WBMD are trading at better than 60 times earnings – a sign that the stock may be vulnerable to any disappointing news.

The article concludes that, "While WebMD remains an important stop for folks looking online for medical information," lots of good news is already baked into the stock price. In other words, the author says, "investors may find healthier returns elsewhere."


Contrarian Takeaway:

Technically speaking, the shares of WBMD extended their quest for new highs on Thursday, tagging a fresh 52-week peak of $42.55. Further reflecting the stock's technical muscle, the equity has outshined most of the broad market, outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 14% during the past 60 sessions.

However, while the majority of analysts have already jumped on WBMD's bullish bandwagon, not everyone on the Street is a fan of the stock. In fact, during the most recent reporting period, short interest on the security jumped 7.2%, and now accounts for 11% of the stock's total available float. Should the equity continue its string of new highs, this skepticism could be a boon for WBMD. At the stock's average daily trading volume, it would take a whopping 36 sessions for all of these bearish bets to unwind, providing ample fuel for a potential short-covering situation to bolster WBMD even deeper into the black.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


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Will Activision Blizzard's Poor Price Action Freeze Bullish Investors?

Posted on 2/22/2010 11:55 AM

Publication: "The Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "Navigating the Videogame Blizzard"
Publication Date: 2/21/2010

KeyWords: ATVI ERTS 

Brief Summary:

This Wall Street Journal article argues that there is a shift coming in the video game market, and that Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS: sentiment, chart, options) is on the outside looking in. Specifically, ERTS relies heavily on "traditional packaged games, a market that shrank 9% globally in 2009." By contrast, Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI: sentiment, chart, options) garners about 30% of its revenue and a higher degree of profit from recurring subscription fees.

Subscription fees and downloadable content, the author argues, are the future of the video game sector. "Investors should assume the packaged business is in permanent decline," the author states. This realm of different business models is currently being dominated by Activision, according to the Journal, though Electronic Arts is looking for considerably more than a foothold in the market with its new Star Wars online game.

The concept of online downloads and content delivery should be "the holy grail for game makers," the author concludes. "As with other content providers, digital delivery saves on manufacturing costs, allowing price cuts to make $60 games more affordable and reduce lost revenue in the used market."


Contrarian Takeaway:

My colleague Jocelynn Drake painted a grim picture for Electronic Arts Inc. earlier this morning, so let's take a closer look at the Journal's bullish candidate, Activision Blizzard Inc. Technically speaking, the shares are up a mere 14.7% during the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) gain of 44% during the same time frame. What's more, ATVI has been plagued by overhead resistance at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since October 2009. These trendlines are currently located just above the equity, and could force ATVI to retest round-number support at the 10 level in short order.

Meanwhile, sentiment is far from supportive from a contrarian perspective. Despite ATVI's weakening price action, investors remain heavily bullish toward the shares. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.42 arrives at an annual low, meaning that options traders have not been more optimistic during the past year.

Additionally, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) reveals that more than four calls have been bought to open for every put purchased during the prior two weeks. This rising call-buying activity in the face of ATVI's poor technical performance has bearish implications from a contrarian perspective.

Wall Street analysts also pose a significant problem for the equity. According to Zacks, 26 of the 27 brokerage firms following ATVI rate the shares a "buy" or better. What's more, Thomson Reuters reports that the consensus price target for ATVI sits at $14.82 per share, a premium of 37% to the stock's close of $10.79 per share on Friday. Any downgrades or price-target cuts could exacerbate the stock's current downtrend.

Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)


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"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
~ Humphrey Neill,
The Art of Contrary Thinking

The above quote has been reiterated numerous times in our publications because of its ability to succinctly capture the essence of contrarian thinking. While simple in theory, the task of capturing the prevailing sentiment can be as elusive as defining the boundaries of a cloud. The closer you get to it, the harder it is to see.

Even Humphrey Neill admitted the difficulties inherent in gauging sentiment:

"I found in my own case that it took several years, as a matter of fact, before I was able to weigh 'public opinion' with sufficient accuracy to feel reasonably confident of the contrary conclusion. It takes time to form the habit of thinking contrarily…I grant you that you will have to peruse a pile of news and comments."

Regular Schaeffer's readers are well aware that we use "hard" data such as put/call ratios and short interest to gauge the sentiment of stocks, sectors, and the market as a whole. Graphs and numbers are easy to quantify and show. What is not so easy to convey is the sentiment that is gathered from poring over numerous publications and scanning various news outlets. This information is embedded in our approach and used to make trading decisions.

At Schaeffer's, we have a team of analysts who track this "anecdotal sentiment" and pull it all together for our in-house research. The amount of information available is overwhelming and it would be impossible for one individual to stay on top of it all. Noting that Neill himself acknowledged the complexity of tracking numerous publications and the need for experience, we have launched a new column, "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian."

This daily column will post summaries of current articles and provide a short take on how we view the article in a contrarian light. Some entries will give you insight into how we read media articles and how to merge small morsels into a tasty contrarian meal. Our goal is to constantly scan various media and news outlets every trading day and present some of what we feel provides a good contrarian read. We should note that not all articles will lend themselves to a contrarian interpretation. In fact, most will not.

What This is Not

First and foremost, "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian" is not meant as a trade recommendation. These articles and our contrarian interpretation are but a small piece of a much larger analytical puzzle. Gathering anecdotal sentiment from a variety of sources and merging this with hard data is the hallmark of contrarian analysis. Here you get a first-hand account of how to go about this in real time.

It's also important to understand that getting a contrarian read from an article is by no means a poor reflection on the publication or its writers. A negative article on a high-flying stock may site accurate facts and be extremely logical. And more importantly, it could ultimately prove to be correct. However, experience has taught us that uptrends do not end until the final capitulation where it seems that everyone has finally given up their concerns. The market has shown time and again that short-term moves are often driven purely on emotions. By monitoring the comments made by analysts in the media, we can add this to our contrarian arsenal to gauge whether the capitulation stage has finally been reached.

At Schaeffer's, we have the years of experience and the ability to "peruse the piles of news." More importantly, we are willing to share it with you every day. It's almost like having your own personal team of contrarian analysts gathering and summarizing anecdotal information. We hope "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian" becomes a resource you value as much as we do.

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