Schaeffer's Top Stock Picks for '25

Equifax Put Option Premiums Set to Jump on Massive Data Breach

Prospective EFX speculators should keep a close eye on option prices amid today's stock sell-off

Sep 8, 2017 at 8:46 AM
facebook X logo linkedin


Atlanta-based Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX), one of the three major U.S. credit bureaus, said late Thursday that a security breach had exposed the data of up to 143 million Americans -- including Social Security numbers, and in some cases, credit card information. Additionally, CNBC reports that three top executives at Equifax unloaded $2 million in company stock days after the breach occurred, though the officers were said to be unaware of the attack when the transactions were made in early August.

EFX stock is down 13% pre-market, on track to open around $124 -- well below recent support at its 80-day moving average. That drop would leave the shares back at early February levels, and -- barring a rapid recovery in today's trading -- would put EFX on pace for a Friday close beneath its 80-week moving average for the first time since 2011. This longer-term trendline provided key support for Equifax shares during a late-2016 pullback.

Ahead of last night's negative news, relatively few traders had sold EFX short. Short interest accounts for only 1.5% of the stock's float, though there likely won't be an opportunity for shorts to build their positions in the immediate future. An intraday drop of 10% or more would put EFX on the short-sale restricted list, which could translate into heightened interest in the equity's put options.

On that front, Trade-Alert reports that put open interest on EFX currently stands at an annual high, though that translates into a fairly modest accumulation of just 3,285 put contracts for lightly traded Equifax options. And while option premiums were pretty tame as of last night's close, with 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 14.7% registering in only the 18th annual percentile, it seems safe to assume that EFX implieds will spike today.

With that in mind, traders may want to resist the urge to pile on the bearish bandwagon for EFX in light of today's news. There may be more downside in store for the stock as Wall Street learns additional details about the magnitude and fallout of the data breach, but a potentially rapid increase in the price of EFX put options could make it challenging to reap the maximum benefits of options leverage.

UPDATE, 10:25 AM: With just under an hour of trading in the books, EFX put volume has totaled 4,902 contracts -- already setting a new 52-week high. Also at a new annual high, as expected, is 30-day at-the-money implied volatility, which Trade-Alert pegs at 43.7%. Prior to today's surge, the 52-week high in this metric was 26.0%.

Meanwhile, the 30-day implied volatility skew for EFX options is 38.4%, in the 94th annual percentile. This simply confirms that EFX put options are pricing in considerably steeper volatility expectations than the stock's calls.
 
 

Which of These SUB-$5 Stocks Could 26x From Here? (AD)

He called a rare 11x on Tesla…

Then he called a 26x on Workhorse…

Then an even rarer 35x on Nio Inc…

Now Tim Bohen says these 5 tiny “America First” stocks are next up in 2025.

They’re trading for less than $5 right now.

But thanks to Elon & Trump’s new alliance…

They could be off to the races in Trump’s first 100 days.

And right now for a limited time…

You can get the names & tickers for just $1 here. (AD)

10 Stock Picks FREE
 
 

Featured Articles from Trusted Partners:

🚀 One Stock Pick Could Change Everything in 2025
What if one stock pick could define your success next year? Get 10 expert-vetted stocks set for 2025—plus 5 bonus picks to watch now. Get the Report →

🆕 New Options Need New Trading Strategies
Zero-DTE options are the newest (and hottest) options to trade.  Professional traders have rushed into the market and are making a mint.  Don’t get left behind - learn all about these options, how to trade them, market setups to profit from, plus much more. Download now →

👀 Revealed: 3 Defensive Stocks for Your Portfolio
Worried about the market? This free report reveals 3 under-the-radar defensive stocks for uncertain times in any kind of economy.

 

 
 

FREE Report Download

 

Follow us on X, Follow us on Twitter