Bernie Schaeffer's Market Commentaries

March Option Advisor: Bargains Available

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:07:00 GMT

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the March edition of the Option Advisor, published on Feb...(Read More)

Schaeffer on Stocks: A Strangle on Priceline.com (PCLN)?

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 21:30:00 GMT

Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN) is a poster child for the schizophrenic nature of this market...(Read More)

Schaeffer on Stocks: The 'Most Hated Sector'

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 14:50:00 GMT

My colleague, Ryan Detrick, emailed me a MarketWatch story from Feb. 17 entitled "The worst is yet to come - what to expect from the commercial real estate crisis." Ryan's choice comment was, "Nothing new...(Read More)

Schaeffer on Stocks: Should You Buy the Baidu Inc. Breakout?

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 21:12:00 GMT

According to Bespoke Investment Group, Baidu Inc.'s (BIDU) fourth-quarter earnings report after the close on Tuesday beat earnings forecasts by 12 cents per share (%241.80 vs...(Read More)

February Option Advisor: Beware Consensus Thinking

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 14:00:00 GMT

The accompanying chart tracks the performance of crude oil futures from the early 1990s to their climactic peak in mid-2008...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: The Next Technical Landmark

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 13:45:00 GMT

"Chartists point out that when the S&P passed 1,120 it had recovered exactly half the ground it lost from its October 2007 peak to its March 2009 trough...(Read More)

Schaeffer on Charts: An Expensive VIX

Thu, 31 Dec 2009 20:00:00 GMT

Even as the S&P 500 Index's 30-minute intraday volatility has been lurching below Thanksgiving week, pre-Dubai levels in the mind-numbing 5% zone (Chart 1), the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) has been gaining ground this week after tagging 52-week lows the week before (Chart 2)...(Read More)

January Option Advisor Commentary

Mon, 28 Dec 2009 19:20:00 GMT

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the January 2010 edition of the Option Advisor, published on Dec...(Read More)

Schaeffer on Charts: Is the VIX 'Too Low' South of 20?

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 19:27:00 GMT

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) has tagged several new 52-week lows in today's trading, and -- perhaps even more significantly -- the index has slipped below the key 20 level for the first time since August 2008.Of course, there are those whose knee-jerk response will be that the VIX is now "too low" (see my recent effort at debunking this argument), and therefore the market is now particularly vulnerable to a pullback...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: More From the Doom-and-Gloom Lobby

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:45:00 GMT

"The benchmark index for U.S. stock options may almost double in 2010 on investors' concern that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's rally outpaced prospects for economic and earnings growth, according to David Rosenberg ... 'We'll be in a year of heightened volatility,' Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc...(Read More)

December Option Advisor Commentary

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:55:00 GMT

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the December edition of the Option Advisor, published on Nov...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: The Gloom-and-Doom Lobby

Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:15:00 GMT

"The worldwide decline in equities spurred by Dubai's efforts to reschedule its debt is a sign that government spending alone won't be enough to protect financial markets, according to Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Thoughts on Hedging, Volatility

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:15:00 GMT

"Standard & Poor's, the world's leading index provider, announced today the launch of the S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index which dynamically allocates between equity, volatility and cash to provide broad equity market exposure with an implied volatility hedge...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Watching the Big Money Play Defense

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:00 GMT

"As many investors sit on big stock profits, they are focusing on safeguarding their own money...(Read More)

November Option Advisor Commentary

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the November edition of the Option Advisor, published on Oct...(Read More)

Schaeffer on Charts: Some Thoughts on the Pullback

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:41:00 GMT

As I write this, the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) (currently at 1,050 - see blue line on accompanying chart) has been taken out, perhaps the first significant technical casualty of the pullback from the Oct...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Looking Forward, And Back

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:30:00 GMT

I usually use this space to comment on articles that catch my eye in the financial media...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Weighing Stocks vs. Bonds

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:50:00 GMT

"The sacred texts of investing need to be rewritten. It turns out that the so-called equity risk premium, the once-sacrosanct belief that stocks perform better than bonds over time, has been vastly overrated...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: A Brief Pre-Weekend Sentiment Take

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:32:00 GMT

I recently discussed the anecdotal sentiment picture, concluding that this media-based gloom in the context of a powerful market uptrend had very bullish contrarian implications...(Read More)

October Option Advisor Commentary

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:46:00 GMT

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the October edition of the Option Advisor, published on September 24...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Chorus of Doom Cheers Contrarians

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:05:00 GMT

"As if they really knew, leading economists predict that recovery from our Great Recession will be plodding, gray and jobless...(Read More)

Schaeffer On Charts: Keeping It Simple

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:00:00 GMT

While most of us technical types love to dive into a wide swath of indicators in our attempts to divine market direction, keeping it very simple in your technical analysis can often yield huge benefits...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Skeptics Continue to Doubt Rally

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 13:15:00 GMT

"Record low interest rates and vast amounts of money pumped into economies by central banks has translated into surging asset values across financial markets, raising the prospect of a new speculative bubble...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: Five Reasons Why the 'Rally is Bogus' Argument May Be Bogus

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 13:00:00 GMT

"5 Reasons the Rally is Built on Quicksand"(David Rosenberg - currently of Gluskin Sheff and former chief economist at Merrill Lynch - 9/10/09)"16 Reasons for Equities Markets to Fall Soon"(Seeking Alpha - 9/8/09)Schaeffer's addendum: It's difficult to take an aggressive stand against a 50%-plus stock market rally off what could prove to be a major bottom unless you make some tenuous assumptions...(Read More)

Schaeffer's Media Outtake: The Lessons of History

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:50:00 GMT

"As American author (and investor) Mark Twain famously said, history may not repeat itself but it rhymes...(Read More)