The 40-day moving average has sent CRM higher in the past
Blue-chip cloud name Salesforce.com, inc (NYSE:CRM) stock is down 2.2% to trade at $236.96 at last check. A catalyst for today's dip is unclear, though attention from retail traders from sites like Stocktwits may play some role. Whatever the case, Salesforce stock boasts a 25.6% year-over-year lead, and is fresh off a July 7, eight-month high of $253.50. Even better, CRM just pulled back to trendline with historically bullish implications, which could send the stock higher on the charts over the next few weeks.
Digging deeper, Salesforce stock just came within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average, after spending nearly two months above this trendline. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, at least seven similar signals have occurred in the past three years. Salesforce stock enjoyed a positive return one month later in 86% of these cases, averaging a 6.1% gain. From its current perch, a comparable move would put CRM over the $250 mark, much closer to its eight-month peak.
Salesforce stock could also benefit from a sentiment shift over in the options pits, which have been a bit more bearish than usual This is per CRM’s 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands in the elevated 88th percentile of its annual range.
Echoing this, Salesforce stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.04 stands higher than 97% of readings from the past 12 months. In simpler terms, short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased.
Lastly, CRM premiums can be had for a discount right now. Salesforce stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24% sits in the low 8th percentile of readings in its annual range. This means options players are pricing in low volatility expectations for CRM at the moment.