Chipotle will report earnings after the close on Wednesday, April 21
Shares of fast-casual restaurant name Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) are 5.1% lower at $45.70 this afternoon, just ahead of its first-quarter earnings report, due out after the close on Wednesday, April 23. Amid broad-market pressure, today's dip comes after the company made headlines for announcing its first-ever expansion into Mexico. Chipotle plans to open a location in Mexico City early next year in partnership with Alsea -- a move that could signal a larger push into international markets.
Per Zacks Research, analysts expect Chipotle to report earnings of 28 cents per share on $2.93 billion in revenue -- marking year-over-year gains of 3.7% and 8.5%, respectively. The stock has a mixed earnings reaction history, averaging a 6.6% move in either direction over the past eight quarters. This time around, the options market is pricing in a much larger next-day swing of 11.7%.
Chipotle stock has been stuck in a steady downtrend for most of 2025, with recent rally attempts consistently rejected at its 40-day moving average. Fresh off its third weekly loss in four, the equity is now down 24.9% year-to-date and 20.6% over the last 12 months.
Ahead of the event, BofA Global Research lowered its price target on CMG to $64 from $71 -- though that still represents a roughly 40% premium to current levels. More downward revisions could follow, as the stock’s average 12-month price objective stands at $63.
The stock’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 25 out of 100 -- suggesting the stock has tended to underperform the volatility expectations priced into its options. For traders expecting a post-earnings breakout, that low SVS reading may warrant caution.