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As they say, comparison is the thief of joy. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up double digits. Fast forward a year, and the SPX is staring down a 5% loss for the first quarter of 2025, with one trading day left in March. Friday’s latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading and the ongoing tariff disputes have done little to inspire faith going forward that the uncertainty rattling markets right now will die down anytime soon.
Of the 17 picks we highlighted for 2025, only four are in the black for Q1, with one day left in the quarter. But it’s not a hopeless wasteland out there. When power ranking our 18 Top Stock Picks of 2025, there are some trends that can help identify the potential strengths in the market.
One caveat to note is that prior to Friday’s broad-market selloff, when these numbers were pulled on Wednesday, seven were in positive territory year-to-date. In terms of first quarter analysis, we power ranked the 18 picks into five tiers, but not necessarily by year-to-date performance.
The first tier features the obvious outperformers. In tier two, we examine the stocks that are lower year-to-date but still brimming contrarian potential. Tier three features struggling names with long-term technical support intact. Tier four examines artificial intelligence (AI) adjacent underperformers, and tier five are the laggards with a lot of work to do.
Tier One: Leaders of the Pack
Of the 18 picks we highlighted in December for 2025, seven are in the black for Q1. Of those seven, only one can be classified as a tech name, a massive deviation from the usually-reliable software and semiconductors stocks that usually populate these lists.
Banking looks to be back, and Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) is leading the way. In December, we liked the long-term rounding pattern that had formed, with the recently conquered $15 level a potential springboard. We also flagged contrarian potential that hasn’t come to fruition yet that could keep the wind at the stock’s back. There hasn’t been an upgrade on DB since September, and 40% of analysts are still on the sidelines with “hold” or worse ratings. Short interest meanwhile, is up over 70% in the two most recent reporting periods.
Consumer lending – the largest publicly traded pawn shop – stock Ezcorp Inc (NASDAQ:EZPW) is another early leader that had contrarian potential to start the year, with short covering underway in December. Yet bearish bettors remain stubborn; fast forward to today and short interest is up 15% in the two most recent reporting periods and a healthy 18.7% of its total available float sold short. The 21-week moving averages we highlighted has proven supportive amid a channel of higher highs.
Singapore-based software stock Sea Ltd (NYSE:SE) may not have the contrarian potential of EZPW, but the we nailed the $125-$130 level as a magnet. SE melted up by 7.1% on March 4 after the company’s stellar fourth-quarter earnings report that culminated in a record high of $147.72 on March 5. Subsequent short-term consolidation below that peak could just be a breather before another leg higher.
Tier Two: The Forest From the Trees
Despite the red ink taking up the YTD table, 12 of the 18 names boast outsized gains year-over-year. Depending on your risk appetite, that just means many of these Q1 pullbacks are at intriguing entry points. A growth stock like Rocket Lab USA Inc (NASDAQ:RKLB) has rewarded short sellers to start 2025 but still has its 2021 candle highs in place. After the meteoric rise of Rocket Lab to end the year, an overdue correction to shake out the weaker hands can benefit savvy investors looking to buy the dip.
Gene editing stock Beam Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:BEAM) may be down 10.6%, but on Friday the equity received an upgrade to “buy” from “neutral” at BofA Global Research. The company also just received clearance from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its genetic liver disease study, a potential tailwind we highlighted in December. Support is lining up around $20, and with 10.1% of BEAM’s total available float sold short, the biotech stock could be a sleeping giant.
Nothing avoids a tech bubble like fertilizer, but CF Industries Holdings, Inc (NYSE:CF) has breached its 200-week moving average. Keep an eye for a retest of this trendline. Alternative energy firebrand Bloom Energy Corp (NYSE:BE) has skewered the 20-day trendline we identified as support but is holding the psychologically-significant $20 level amid Friday’s selloff. Much-maligned Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) hasn’t secured the 50% retracement, but its 200-month moving average should prop up investor confidence.
Tier Three: Watch This Space
Tech asset stock SEI Investments Co (NASDAQ:SEIC) lost the cup-and-handle chart pattern we identified in December, as well as its $10 billion market cap. But monitor the latter, as a reclamation of this key level could become a pivot point going forward.
Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA) started the year off red hot, building on its 2024 momentum. Despite a 12% drawdown in March, the shares have bounced off their 260-day moving average and their year-to-date breakeven level could emerge as a key pivot point going forward.
Streaming giant Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) has taken a 29% haircut off its Feb. 14, 12-month high of $104.96, a drawdown that breached the vaunted $80 level we targeted as support. After a brief reclamation of $80, ROKU breached this level once more this week, and given the test and retests, maintains a key plot point for the rest of the year.
Tier Five: AI Bubble Bursting?
The artificial intelligence (AI) fever that swept through Wall Street in the last 24 months is showing signs of breaking. Alibaba (BABA) CEO had cryptic comments about a data center bubble, while CoreWeave’s $23 billion valuation this week is a vast departure from the $32 million they originally sought. If an AI reckoning is indeed upon us, keep a cautious eye on Netherlands-based Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS), STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM), as well as U.S.-based Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:DELL).
The Cellar: You Okay Back There?
Not all of fintech and finance has enjoyed the inflationary environment, just ask SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SOFI) and LendingClub Corp (NYSE:LC). Their technical charts leave a lot to be desired, with most of the damage done from post-earnings bear gaps of 10.3% and 14.3%, respectively. If you want to lump cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) in with the fintech’s, then the sector holds three of the four worst-performing stocks so far this year.
Analyzing these 2025 stock picks is one big Rorschach test for the year. If you foresee tariffs and inflation as stubbornly persistent storylines, then the performance from safer names like DB and EZPW offer some comfort that there’s still gains to be wrought amidst this uncertainty. If you see this macro environment as a bug and not a feature all year, then you have your pick of intriguing growth names currently in the discount pile.
It should also be noted that everyday investors are unfazed. Retail traders have poured $67 billion into U.S. stocks in the first quarter of the year, per Financial Times, while institutional investors look to overseas and emerging markets. With inflows stable from Q4 of 2024 to now, context as always brings clarity. Last year around this time, when we wrote a similar progress report of our 2024 picks, seven of the 12 picks were underwater, and look how that ended up. One quarter does not make or break a stock, but knowing where you stand is half the battle as an investor.