Stocks Set for Positive Open to 4Q

U.S. stock market futures are trading above fair value this morning, pointing toward a strong start to the fourth quarter for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). Today's session features a number of economic reports, including the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index, as well as several Fed speeches. Still, many traders may maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the week, since the U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks next week.  

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone says a breakout above this VIX level could be a warning sign for stocks.
• Why one analyst thinks this drug stock will triple.
• Behind this Street-high Newell price target.
• Plus, steel stock sinks again on M&A news; 2 retailers to watch; and ACAD stock gets another bull note.

5 Things You Need to Know Today

1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 641,619 call contracts traded on Monday, compared to 430,827 put contracts -- both numbers representing year-to-date lows. The single-session equity put/call ratio slipped to 0.67, while the 21-day moving average remained at 0.65.
2. United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) is set to add to its 37% year-to-date decline, due to news the company will acquire a 49.9% interest in Big River Steel for $700 million. X shares are off roughly 5% before the open, adding to the recent headwinds that stemmed from the GM workers strike.
3. Brokerage firm Jefferies just released a note saying that the bankruptcy of retailer Forever 21 could benefit American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) and Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) the most. Jefferies said there's customer overlap for both companies, and rated the stocks as "buys."
4. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) received a new "outperform" rating and $60 price target from RBC, which thinks Wall Street is underestimating the potential for the company's Parkinson's treatment Nuplazid. The price target offers monster upside from ACAD's Monday close at $35.99, and comes just a few weeks after the shares surged on positive drug data.
5. Markit's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and construction spending data are due. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will also speak in the morning. Stitch Fix (SFIX) and United Natural Foods (UNFI) will report earnings.

European Stocks Fall on Weak Data

Asian stocks finished higher in a low-volume session, with markets in China and Hong Kong closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6%, after the Bank of Japan's tankan survey showed business confidence fell less than expected in the third quarter. Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi jumped 0.5% as a supply deal for biopharmaceutical firm Celltrion boosted the broader medical sector.

European markets are down modestly at midday, after the IHS Markit's final September PMI reading for the eurozone arrived at its lowest level since October 2012. At last check, the French CAC 40 is off 0.2%, the German DAX is down 0.1%, and London's FTSE 100 is flirting with a 0.09% loss.