Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jan 20, 2021 at 7:05 AM
Updated on Feb 27, 2025 at 4:53 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Today's Stock Market News & Events: 1/20/2021

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

Stocks made a comeback from last week's losses on Tuesday, as investors showed renewed optimism over additional stimulus, and kicked off earnings season with positive energy. Assuaging investor concerns about the incredible spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., Dr. Rochelle Walensky, President-elect Joe Biden's pick for head of the CDC, announced that the U.S. will be able to fulfill its goal of vaccinating 100 million people in Biden's first 100 days as President. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI - 30,930.52) added 116.3 points yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX - 3,798.91) added 30.7 points and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC - 13,197.18) added 198.7 points, or 1.5% on Tuesday. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 23.24) dropped 4.5% for the day yesterday. 

Today investors will likely be equal parts anxious and excited for President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration into the White House. In addition, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index data will be reported today.

The following companies are slated to release quarterly earnings reports today, January 20:

ASML N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML -- $549.50) develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems. ASML will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK -- $45.82) provides a range of financial products and services. BNY Mellon will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF -- $80.43) operates as the financial holding company for BOKF, NA. BOK Financial will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:CFG -- $40.83) provides a range of financial products and services. Citizens Financial Group will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBSH -- $71.12) operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank. Commerce Bancshares will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST -- $50.42) engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. Fastenal will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS -- $74.99) provides various financial products and services. Morgan Stanley will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG -- $133.60) provides branded consumer packaged goods to consumers. Procter & Gamble will report its second-quarter earnings before the bell today.

U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB -- $48.07) provides various financial services. U.S. Bancorp will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE:UNH -- $352.19) operates as a diversified health care company. UnitedHealth will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 before the bell today.

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA -- $23.09) produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS -- $99.07) operates as a direct banking and payment services company. Discover Financial Services will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Hancock Whitney Corporation (NASDAQ:HWC -- $40.06) operates as the bank holding company for Hancock Whitney Bank. Hancock Whitney will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI -- $15.55) operates as an energy infrastructure company. Kinder Morgan will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Plexus Corp. (NYSE:PLXS -- $82.58) provides electronic manufacturing services. Plexus will report its first-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

Sterling Bancorp (NYSE:STL -- $20.85) operates as the bank holding company for Sterling National Bank. Sterling Bancorp will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Umpqua Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:UMPQ -- $16.69) operates as the holding company of Umpqua Bank. Umpqua Holdings will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL -- $44.75) provides air transportation services. United Airlines will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Wintrust Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:WTFC -- $69.03) operates as a financial holding company. Wintrust Fin will report its fourth-quarter earnings of 2020 after the market closes today.

Here is a quick recap of how Tuesday's earnings reports played out:

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) provides banking and financial products and services. Earnings per share decreased 20.27% over the past year to $0.59, which beat the estimate of $0.55. Revenue of $20,212,000,000 decreased by 10.14% from the same period last year, which missed the estimate of $20,680,000,000.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) operates as an investment banking, securities, and investment management company. Earnings per share were up 157.57% over the past year to $12.08, which beat the estimate of $7.47. Revenue of $11,741,000,000 rose by 17.94% year over year, which beat the estimate of $9,990,000,000.

 

Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) provides a range of services and products to oil and natural gas companies. Earnings per share decreased 43.75% year over year to $0.18, which beat the estimate of $0.15. Revenue of $3,237,000,000 declined by 37.64% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $3,210,000,000.

State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors. Earnings per share decreased 14.65% year over year to $1.69, which beat the estimate of $1.56. Revenue of $2,917,000,000 decreased by 4.30% year over year, which beat the estimate of $2,820,000,000.

Fulton Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:FULT) operates as a multi-bank financial holding company. Earnings per share decreased 9.09% over the past year to $0.30, which missed the estimate of $0.31. Revenue of $164,578,000 higher by 1.29% year over year, which beat the estimate of $158,310,000.

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBKR) operates as an automated electronic broker worldwide. Earnings per share increased 18.97% year over year to $0.69, which beat the estimate of $0.59. Revenue of $599,000,000 rose by 19.80% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $558,850,000.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:JBHT) provides surface transportation and delivery services. Earnings per share increased 6.67% year over year to $1.44, which beat the estimate of $1.30. Revenue of $2,738,000,000 up by 11.76% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $2,570,000,000.

Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ:PNFP) operates as the bank holding company for Pinnacle Bank. Earnings per share rose 24.41% over the past year to $1.58, which beat the estimate of $1.35. Revenue of $304,429,000 higher by 20.06% year over year, which beat the estimate of $303,800,000.

United Community Banks, Inc. (NASDAQ:UCBI) operates as the bank holding company for United Community Bank. Earnings per share rose 11.48% year over year to $0.68, which beat the estimate of $0.60. Revenue of $183,863,000 rose by 28.29% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $180,260,000.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, investors will likely be equal parts anxious and excited for President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration into the White House on Wednesday. In addition, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index data will be reported tomorrow.

All economic dates listed here are tentative and subject to change.

Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 1:28 PM
  • Strategies and Concepts

Options Prices: 3 Things to Know

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Team

As you may well be aware, it's very common for option players to close out their trades without ever touching the underlying equity. In other words, they're not looking to acquire or sell the underlying stock; these speculators simply want to capitalize on changes in the option's price (known as "trading for premium"). Obviously, then, every derivatives trader worth his or her salt must be well-versed in the factors that influence an option's price.

Equally as obvious: One of the main factors that affects an option's price is the price of the equity on which it is based. (Assuming all other things are equal, a call option's value will increase in direct relation with the underlying, while a put option's value will increase in inverse relation with the underlying.) But how much do you know about the other catalysts that can prompt major changes in the price of a call or put contract? And do you know which Greek measures your option's probability of finishing in the money? Read on to learn more.

Implied volatility can make or break your trade

The first and most nebulous factor is known as implied volatility (IV). In the simplest terms, IV is a measure of the market's expectations for the underlying equity's performance during the life span of the option. When IV is high, options will be more expensive to purchase. Conversely, low IV will translate to more affordable option prices.

Generally speaking, heightened IV correlates with bearish sentiment, while low IV suggests a bullish mood. Additionally, an option's IV will rise ahead of scheduled events, such as earnings reports and new product launches. These occurrences can often spark major movements in the price of the underlying, and the expectation of such a move results in higher IV. Once the anticipated event occurs, IV will immediately drop.

What does this mean for option players? Well, that depends on whether you're buying or selling. If you purchase an option with high IV, you need a much bigger move out of the underlying stock to profit from the trade. That's because you're paying a higher premium to buy the option in the first place.

For this reason, be wary of buying calls or puts directly prior to an earnings report or other scheduled event. When IV is over-inflated, your option could potentially drop in value, even if the stock moves in the direction you anticipated.

On the other hand, hefty IV readings can be a boon for the option writer. If you sell a call option with very high IV, that translates to a higher premium payment in your pocket. Then, when IV drops back to its usual levels, you can buy to close your option at a discount.

So, how do you judge whether IV is high or low? By comparing the option's current IV against the stock's historical volatility (HV), you can determine whether the contracts are relatively cheap or comparatively pricey. Just make sure that you match up the option's life span with the proper time frame -- for example, if you're trying to gauge IV on an option with two months of shelf life, compare that number against the equity's 40-day HV. If the IV is higher than the HV, the options are more expensive than usual. If the historical figure is higher, the options are trading at a bargain.

Time decay speeds up as expiration approaches

Another factor that affects the price of your option is time decay, which refers to the loss of time value. While "time value" is commonly understood to refer to the amount of time priced into your option contract -- and longer-dated options do, indeed, carry higher premiums than their shorter-term counterparts -- it's important to note that IV is also bundled under the umbrella of time value.

In-the-money options carry both intrinsic value and time value, while out-of-the-money options consist solely of time value. As a result, the effects of time decay are felt most acutely on out-of-the-money options.

What makes time decay so tricky is that it occurs in a non-linear fashion, and actually accelerates as the option draws closer to its expiration date. The rate at which your option will lose time value can be measured by theta, which is one of the infamous "Greeks."

Since it erodes the value of an option, time decay works against the option buyer. For every day that passes, your out-of-the-money option will lose a steadily increasing amount of time value, thereby decreasing the contract's worth.

On the other side of this equation, time decay works in favor of the option seller. Should you need to buy to close your sold option, the erosion of time value should translate to a lower buy-to-close price (all other things being equal).

Delta offers up some key information

To clear up a common misconception, delta does not affect an option's price. Instead, delta is yet another one of those metrics known collectively as the Greeks. Its function is to measure how much your option's price will change for every one-point gain in the underlying stock. Call option deltas will always be a positive number between 0 and 1, while put option deltas will always be a negative number between 0 and -1, since a put option will lose value as the underlying stock rises.

For example, if your option has a delta of 0.70, it means that your call option will gain 70 cents for each dollar the stock rises. As in-the-money calls get close to expiration, they will approach a delta of 1. As an in-the-money put approaches expiration, its delta will move closer to -1. This indicates that the options are now moving point-for-point with the underlying security.

For this reason, an option's delta is thought to roughly correspond with the contract's chances of finishing in the money -- so, that call option with a delta of 0.70 would be said to have a 70% chance of expiring in the money. (Keep in mind that this is an estimation, not a guarantee.)

You'll also sometimes hear delta referred to as the "hedge ratio," because some traders utilize an option's delta to determine how they should hedge their investments. For example, let's say that you purchase one call option controlling 100 shares of XYZ with a delta of 0.50. Assuming that this option has a 50% chance of finishing in the money, you decide to hedge your long position by shorting the underlying stock. Using the delta as a hedge ratio, you would want to sell short 50 shares of XYZ, or 50% of your total exposure.

Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 1:16 PM
  • Best and Worst Stocks

It's no secret that Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) has struggled over the past year due to incidents with its commercial and defense units, as well as a workers' strike. While the stock saw a brief rally after the company's most recent quarterly report, investors should not bet on a recovery just yet, as it appeared on a list of 25 worst S&P 500 Index (SPX) names to own in March.

According Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, BA averaged a 5% loss in March over the last decade, settling higher only three times during that period. The stock was last seen up 1.3% to trade at $175.27, indicating a drop of similar magnitude would place it closer to the $166 level. 

Worst of March

Boeing stock carries a 15.2% year-over-year deficit, and has struggled to close above the $188 level despite several attempts since January. The security is today pacing for its fifth-straight close below the 20-day moving average, a trendline that has alternated between support and resistance for the past 12 months.

BA 20 Day

Options bulls aren't deterred by Boeing's recent woes, however. This is per BA's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.14 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands higher than 98% of annual readings. An unwinding of this optimism could fuel additional headwinds.

Meanwhile, short sellers are firmly in control, despite short interest falling 16.6% in the last two reporting periods. The 19.18 million shares sold short now make up a massive 214.7% of the stock's available float.
Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 1:04 PM
  • Technical Analysis

The last time we analyzed Arista Networks Inc (NYSE:ANET), the computer networking stock had just pulled back to its historically bullish 200-day moving average. While ANET remains primed to bounce off this key trendline, seasonality could provide an additional boost in March.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Arista Networks stock is one of the best-performing S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks in March and is the only telecommunications stock on the list. Historical data shows that ANET has finished the month higher in eight of the past 10 years, averaging a 6.2% return.

Best of March February 272025

The combination of this flashing bull signal and ANET’s historically strong March performance sets the stage for the stock to potentially climb more than 20% over the next 30 days -- should all factors align perfectly. Last seen down 3% at $93.55, a move of this magnitude would push the equity above $112.

The stock could use the boost, too. ANET remains down 16% in 2025, shedding 19.1% since the start of February. The shares are still far from their Jan. 24 all-time high of $133.57, leaving room for a potential rebound if momentum shifts in the bulls' favor.

ANET Chart February 272025

Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 11:55 AM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are seeing plenty of volatility today. Mirroring Nvidia's (NVDA) post-earnings reversal, the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) pulled back sharply from its premarket lead, down triple digits midday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), on the other hand, is sporting a 429-point gain, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) sits modestly higher. 

Global trade remains in focus, after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada going into effect next week, along with an additional 10% tariff on China. The U.S. dollar moved higher after the news, while the 10-year Treasury yield rebounds from recent lows. Elsewhere, jobless claims jumped higher than expected, while gross domestic product (GDP) showed showed the U.S. economy growing 2.3% in the fourth quarter. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • Analysts chime in on Salesforce stock after earnings. 
  • Why this mining stock was upgraded. 
  • Plus, options bulls eye EBAY; and two stocks moving big post-earnings moves. 

MMC February27

eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) is down 9% at $62.92, brushing off upbeat fourth-quarter results on a disappointing current-quarter outlook. Options traders are chiming in, with 14,000 calls and 18,000 puts exchanged so far, which is already 2.4 times EBAY's average daily options volume. The weekly 2/28 64-strike put is the most popular contract, followed by the March 65 call. Falling from last session's three-year highs, the e-commerce giant is up 32.1% year over year. 

ebay feb27

Insurance stock Root Inc (NASDAQ:ROOT) was last seen up 27.6% at $126.00 after the company's upbeat fourth-quarter results, which included earnings of $1.62 per share that smashed analyst estimates of 44 cents per share. The firm marked its first full year of net income profitability in 2024 as well. Climbing back up toward its mid-February three-year highs, ROOT is up 78.9% since the start of the year, and 363% in the past 12 months. 

The New York Stock Exchange's (NYSE) Teleflex Inc (NYSE:TFX) is headed for its worst day ever, down 22.1% at $138.33 at last glance, after a disappointing full-year profit forecast. The medical equipment company also announced the retirement of CFO Thomas Powell, and that it was splitting into two publicly traded companies. Brushing off better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, TFX is trading at eight--year lows. 

Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 10:29 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Software giant Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) is down 2.9% at $298.34 at last check, following mixed fourth-quarter results and a disappointing fiscal 2026 revenue forecast. Though revenue of $2.78 per share beat estimates of $2.61, revenue of $9.99 billion came in below expectations. No fewer than 13 analysts slashed their price targets on CRM after the event, though J.P. Morgan Securities noted the pullback was a potential buying opportunity. 

It's worth noting that CRM's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 19.3 sits firmly in "oversold" territory, which helps bulls' "buy the dip" case. On the charts, today's negative price action has the cloud stock dropping below the $300 level, a key level of both support and pressure over the past year.

At the very end of January, the stock neared its Dec. 4 record high of $369, but February's tumble has it well removed from those levels. Year over year, the equity is dipping into negative territory as it adds to its 11.6% year-to-date deficit. 

Over in the options pits, CRM has seen 40,000 calls and 36,000 puts exchanged straight out of the gate -- four times the amount typically seen at this point. The May 250 put is the most popular contract, where new positions are being bought to open. 

 

 

Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 10:21 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) are down 4% to trade at $126.09 at last check, erasing their premarket lead. The chipmaker earlier reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, and provided a strong current-quarter outlook despite growing competition.

The strong report initially boosted semiconductor peer Micron Technology (MU), but it was also last seen trading lower. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC) is still enjoying tailwinds as concerns surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) demand and Chinese competiton from DeepSeek ease.

The options pits are already chiming in, with 882,000 calls and 628,000 puts exchanged so far today, which is double the volume typically seen at this point. Most popular is the weekly 2/28 140-strike call, where new positions are being opened.

Options traders have been much more bullish than usual in the last few weeks. This is per NVDA's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.41 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands higher than 86% of annual readings.

NVDA still sports a healthy 66.7% year-over-year lead, but is slipping below its 200-day moving average. The stock is also further distancing itself from a Jan. 7 all-time high of $153.13.

Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Updated on Feb 27, 2025 at 9:07 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Feb 27, 2025 at 8:50 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) are climbing, up 2.2% to $38.80 in premarket trading, following an upgrade from Jefferies. The firm boosted its rating from "hold" to "buy" and raised its price target to $48 from $40, citing improving free cash flow trends and cost reductions as catalysts for future growth for the copper producer.

There could be even more room for upgrades, as 10 of the 18 analysts covering FCX still rate it a lukewarm "hold." Meanwhile, options traders appear notably bullish, with Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.4 sitting at its lowest percentile over the past 12 months -- a sign of strong short-term call-buying activity.

On the technical side, Freeport-McMoRan stock is set to open above its 60-day moving average, a key long-term resistance level, as it bounces back from its Feb. 3 low of $34.89, the stock's weakest level since November 2023. FCX remains just below breakeven on both a year-to-date and year-over-year basis.

Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 4:27 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 2:47 PM
  • Technical Analysis

Though the market will be focused on the highly-anticipated Nvidia (NVDA) report, cloud name Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) will also announce its latest quarterly earnings after the close today. SNOW is climbing ahead of the event, up 1.7% at $167.15 at last glance, and looking to snap a five-day losing streak. The equity bounced off a familiar line of support at the $160 level, the site of its November post-earnings bull gap of 32.7%, and remains 8.1% higher in 2025. 

SNOW Feb26

Despite last quarter's surge, SNOW has a fairly dismal history of post-earnings moves. Over the last two years, the stock has only closed two next-day sessions with gains, and both were in November. Options traders are pricing in an 18.7% move for Thursday, regardless of direction, which is slightly larger than the 14% move the stock has averaged over the past eight quarters. 

Analysts are optimistic leading up to the event, however. SNOW received a flood of price-target hikes over the last two weeks, while both Wolfe Research and BTIG upgraded the stock to "buy" last week. Further, of the 42 analyst in coverage, 34 sport a "buy" or better rating.

Call traders have been chiming in as well. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Snowflake stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.29 ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range, while its 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.61 ranks in the 85th percentile. 

 

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Salesforce Stock Slips as Guidance Disappoints
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