Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Updated on Mar 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 1:56 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

The tech sector is rebounding today, pushing the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) up triple digits, as investors buy the dip following an extended broad-market selloff. Chipmakers in particular are riding the wave as artificial intelligence (AI) reenters the spotlight, with Nvidia (NVDA) up 6.7% at last glance. 

The shares of Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) were last seen up 4.2% at $20.61, looking to snap a seven-day losing streak. The $19 level -- which provided a solid floor on the charts since the stock's early-August bear gap -- captured this most recent pullback. INTC has yet to rally to pre-August levels, however, despite surging on acquisition buzz in mid-February. Year-over-year, the equity is down 54.4%. 

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) stock is up 4.1% at $100.73, bouncing off last session's 52-week low of $94.73. The stock has been moving steadily lower since early October, with overhead pressure at the 40-day moving average, and now sports a 50.3% year-over-year deficit. 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE:TSM) stock was up 3.5% at $176.87 at last look, jumping off six-month lows. The 200-day moving average, which provided long-term support from November 2023 until a couple weeks ago, lingers above as potential pressure. Outperforming its peers, TSM is still hanging on to a 22.6% 12-month lead. 

 

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 12:43 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

After touching a record high of $58.74 on March 3, the shares of media giant Fox Corp Class A (NASDAQ:FOXA) quickly pulled back following news that they expect subscriber numbers for its upcoming streaming services to land in the mid-single-digit millions range. Since the start of March, FOXA has shed 9.4%, but historical data suggests the stock may be poised for a rebound.

According to a study from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Fox stock is now within one standard deviation of its 50-day moving average. The stock has traded above this trendline 80% of the time over the past two months and in eight of the last 10 trading days.

Per White's data, similar pullbacks have historically led to strong short-term upside, with past instances resulting in an average one-month gain of 11% and an 80% win rate. A comparable move from FOXA’s current perch of $52.32 would place the stock at $58.08, within reach of a fresh record peak.

FOXA Chart March 122025

Adding to this setup, the equity’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 23 signals oversold conditions -- a contrarian indicator that suggests significant upside potential.

Short sellers have been backing off, with short interest down 12.4% in the last two reporting periods. However, the 21.46 million shares sold short still account for 10% of Fox stock’s available float, meaning a short squeeze remains a possibility. Analysts also remain cautious, with 12 of 20 firms maintaining a "hold" rating, leaving room for potential upgrades to fuel further gains.

Options traders have also leaned bearish, and an unwinding of this pessimism could serve as an additional bullish catalyst. FOXA’s 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 80th percentile of its annual range, suggesting heavy put buying that could unwind, should sentiment shift.

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 12:11 PM
  • Most Active Options Update

American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) stock is seeing unusual options activity today, with 165,000 calls traded so far -- 5 times the volume typically seen at this point -- compared to 48,000 puts. The April 12 call, where positions are currently being opened, is the most popular contract by far.

This penchant for bullish bets has been the norm over the past 10 weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 2.54 that sits higher than 81% of annual readings. 

AAL is down 4.3% to trade at $10.98 at last glance, as the airline sector struggles amid slowing travel demand, and Canadians cancel U.S. travel plans in response to tariffs. Shares are on track for their fifth-straight daily loss, and earlier slipped to its lowest level since October. The security is consolidating below the 200-day moving average, after breaking below it last week, and carries a 26.3% year-to-date deficit.

AAL 200 Day

Short sellers are firmly in control, with the 50.87 million shares sold short now making up 7.9% of the stock's available float. Meanwhile, 13 of the 20 analysts in coverage still call AAL a "buy" or better, indicating a round of downgrades could pressure the shares even lower.

Options look like a good way to weigh in on AAL, as it has tended to outperform options traders' volatility expectations during the past year. This is per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 75 out of 100. 

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 12:09 PM
  • Midday Market Check

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is down 368 points this afternoon, erasing earlier gains that followed a softer-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading for February. After President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect, Canada retaliated with 25% duties on over $20 billion of U.S. goods, starting Thursday.

The European Union (EU) also announced it would enact tariffs of its own as soon as April, targeting $28.33 billion in U.S. imports. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) both sport modest midday leads, the latter boosted by the tech sector.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • Analyst: Coca-Cola rival has limited upside potential.
  • 2 metal stocks to monitor as tariffs go into effect.
  • Plus, SFIX brushes off upbeat quarter; Tesla stock leading the SPX; and airline stock gaps lower.

MMC Stats 0312

Stitch Fix Inc(NASDAQ:SFIX) is getting blasted in the options pits today, with 10,000 calls and 5,902 puts exchanged so far, which is 15 times the volume typically seen at this point. The most popular contract is the June 5.50 call, where new positions are being opened. SFIX is down 8.1% to trade at $3.89 at last check, erasing its earlier lead despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, and raising its annual revenue forecast. Shares slipped into penny stock territory in late February and are facing off with the 40-day moving average, though they sport a 71% year-over-year lead.

SFIX 40 Day

Leading the SPX today is Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), last seen up 5.5% at $243.19, brushing off a price-target cut from Guggenheim to $170 and JP Morgan Securities to $120. Today's pop comes after Trump said he would buy a brand new Tesla to support CEO Elon Musk amid talks of a boycott, while Morgan Stanley highlighted TSLA as a "buy the dip" play. The shares shed over 39% in 2025, and yesterday fell to their lowest level since October. The equity is a long way from its Dec. 18, record high of $488.54, despite being on track for its best day in nearly three months.

United Airlines Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:UAL) is at the bottom of the SPX, last seen down 6.4% at $71.19, extending yesterday's losses after the airline sector pointed to slowing travel demand. The security also attracted price-target cuts from BofA Global Research and Barclays to $110 and $140 from $125 and $150, respectively. UAL is down 26.3% so far in 2025, and earlier gapped to a five-month low, as Canadians begin canceling U.S. travel plans on the back of tariff tensions.

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 10:40 AM
  • Analyst Update

Medical equipment stock Myriad Genetics Inc (NASDAQ:MYGN) was last seen up 9.8% at $11.25, after an upgrade from Piper Sandler to "overweight" from "neutral," with a price-target hike to $12.50 from $11.50. The firm noted an attractive entry point following the stock's extended pullback, and cited the CEO change, as Sam Raha will replace Paul Diaz on April 30. 

Today's surge builds on MYGN’s 6.8% gain in the previous session, following its March 10 five-year low of $9.24. The stock broke below support at $12 after a late-February post-earnings bear gap, which it has yet to fully recover from. Over the last six months, MYGN has plunged 57.8%.

Short sellers have been increasing their bets, with short interest now accounting for 6.1% of the stock's available float. Meanwhile, Myriad Genetics’ 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 22.7 signals the stock is deep in "oversold" territory.

Despite MYGN’s struggles, 10 of the 17 analysts in coverage still maintain a "hold" or worse rating. However, the 12-month consensus price target of $17.41 represents a 54.7% premium to current levels, suggesting potential room for upside.

 

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 10:36 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

The latest U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are already sending ripples through Wall Street, and putting major metal producers Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE) and Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) in focus. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported metals took effect Wednesday, sparking immediate retaliation from the European Union (EU) and market volatility. While Trump initially threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, he backed off after Ontario suspended its 25% surtax on U.S. electricity exports. 

Nucor stock was last seen 0.6% lower at $129.12, pulling back from its premarket gain. Despite fears of a trade war and its impact on metal stocks, NUE has gained 10.6% year-to-date, with its 50-day moving average moving in as support.

Alcoa stock was up 2.7% at $32.82 at last glance. However, AA has struggled this year, down 13% year-to-date. Earlier this month, the stock hit its lowest level since early September, though today’s pop helped it reclaim its 10-day moving average.

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 10:27 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Jefferies downgraded PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP) stock to "hold" from "buy," and cut its price target to $170 from $171. The analyst in coverage cited limited upside potential amid a soft beverages market.

Analysts were divided on PEP coming into today, with 10 calling it a tepid "hold" or worse, while 10 said "strong buy." Should more firms swing to the bearish side, the security could dip even lower.

The shares are on track for their third loss in the last four sessions, and have fallen more than 15% in the last six months. A ceiling at the $160 region has rejected the last three rally attempts off a retest of the stock's Jan. 10, four-year low of $141.51, while today's dip is pressuring the stock back below the 20-day moving average. 

Over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), PepsiCo stock sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 6.95 that sits higher than all annual readings. This means options traders have been much more bullish than usual in the last two weeks.

It's worth noting that PEP's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 71 out of 100 indicates it tends to outperform volatility expectations, making it an interesting play for premium buyers.

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 9:18 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Updated on Mar 12, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • Indicator of the Week

Last week, I covered the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and its 5% declines. Yesterday, that pullback deepened to 10%, officially entering correction territory. In my previous article, I included data on how the index historically performed after such declines. This week, my focus shifts to the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), which has been in correction territory since last week. Unlike the S&P 500, the Nasdaq is more volatile and tech-heavy, containing nearly 3,000 stocks compared to the S&P’s 500.

Nasdaq After Corrections

Historical data suggests that IXIC corrections have often been buying opportunities. After a 10% pullback, the index has averaged a 3% gain over the next month, with 78% of returns positive -- far better than its typical 1.1% gain and 63% positivity rate for the same timeframe since 1990.

The real sweet spot comes three to six months after a correction signal. Six months post-correction, the IXIC has averaged a 16% gain, with 78% of returns positive. When the index moved higher over that period, the average return was over 23%. Notably, in 18 of the 23 corrections since 1990, the IXIC never fell into bear market territory (-20%) before reaching a new all-time high.

 Nasdaq Pullbacks

Slow Bleed vs. Violent Pullback

This latest correction has been unusually drawn out, taking 51 trading days to reach the 10% decline -- the longest stretch among all 24 historical pullbacks.

Historically, faster corrections (20 days or less) tend to produce stronger short-term rebounds, averaging a 3.1% gain over the next two weeks, with 92% of instances positive. Slower corrections, like the current one, see more muted short-term bounces, averaging a 1.3% gain with 60% positivity.

However, over longer timeframes, slower pullbacks tend to outperform at the one-month and one-year marks, while faster declines lead to better three- and six-month returns.

With the IXIC’s longest correction build-up in history, it remains to be seen whether this drawn-out decline will follow its historical pattern of stronger long-term recoveries.

Nasdaq Pullbacks Timeframe

Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Traders are viewing the recent market selloff as an opportunity to buy tech stocks on the dip, with CrowdStrike (CRWD) among the names drawing attention. Cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW) also presents an intriguing opportunity, as the stock just pulled back to a trendline that has historically produced positive returns.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, PANW stock is now within striking distance of its 260-day moving average, a move that has typically resulted in positive returns. This follows a prolonged period above this trendline (defined by White as 80% of the time in the past two months and eight of the last 10 trading days). A similar move occurred five times in the last three years, after which the security was higher one month later each time, averaging a 10.7% gain.
 
PANW 60 Day
 
PANW was last seen up 3.9% to trade at $180.57, so a move of similar magnitude would set it just shy of the $200 level, nearly closing the pullback from its Feb. 19, all-time high of $208.19. Longer term, Palo Alto Networks stock still sports a 27.1% year-over-year lead.
 
At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 50-day call/put volume ratio ratio of 2.28 ranks higher than 93% of annuals readings. This indicates options traders have been much more bullish than usual in the last 10 weeks.

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