Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 4:41 PM
  • Indicator of the Week

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 4:25 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Updated on Feb 19, 2025 at 4:17 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Celsius Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CELH) will announce its fourth-quarter earnings report after the close on Thursday, Feb. 20. Investors are optimistic ahead of the event, with the shares up 12.5% to trade at $25.59 at last glance today, moving further from their recent Feb. 12 two-year low of $21.10. Year over year, the equity is down 59.6%. 

Should Friday's session yield a gain, Celsius stock will have broken a post-earnings losing streak that has spanned three quarters. The options pits are pricing in a 19.7% swing, regardless of direction, after this earnings report, much larger than the 9.7% move the stock has averaged over the past two years. 

Monster Beverage Corp (NASDAQ:MNST) reports fourth-quarter earnings before the open next Wednesday, Feb. 26. The stock has closed seven of the last eight sessions higher and is up 0.3% to trade at $51.20 today, but are testing their overhead 80-day moving average. Year over year, MNST is down 7.7%.

MNST has a mixed post-earnings history, gapping lower by 10.9% after its report in August but also adding 5.8% after its February 2024 report. The options pits are pricing in a 7.4% swing, regardless of direction, this time around, compared to the 4.6% move the stock has averaged over the past eight quarters. 

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 1:00 PM
  • The Week Ahead
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Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 12:53 PM
  • Earnings Preview

Fintech firm Block Inc (NYSE:XYZ) is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings results after the close tomorrow, Feb. 20. Per TipRanks' data, analysts expect the fintech company to post earnings of $0.88 per share on revenue of $6.29 billion, reflecting year-over-year increases of 95.6% and 9%, respectively.

Ahead of the report, Block stock is down 0.7% at $83.58. The security has pulled back over the past three months, slipping 6.9%, and is now down 1.8% year-to-date. However, support from XYZ's 100-day moving average has helped contain losses in recent sessions.

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Block has demonstrated a solid track record in earnings performance, matching or surpassing estimates in six of the last eight quarters. Additionally, XYZ has moved higher in five of its last eight post-earnings sessions.

Options traders are pricing in a significant post-earnings move, with TipRanks’ Options tool indicating an expected 13.9% swing in either direction, based on the at-the-money (ATM) straddle of options expiring nearest to the earnings date.

Despite recent stock weakness, analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on Block. Of the 37 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it a “buy” or better.

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 12:06 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) stock is down 1.2% to trade at $76.67 at last glance, brushing off news of a collaboration with celebrity Kim Kardashian's apparel brand Skims. The equity has struggled with overhead pressure at $80 since October, again failing to conquer this region after a bounce off its Feb. 7, four-year low of $68.62. Shares carry a 25.7% year-over-year deficit, and more headwinds seem to be in store, per a historically  bearish signal now flashing.

NKE 126 Day

Digging deeper, Nike stock is trading near its 126-day moving average (half a year's worth of trading), which has produced bearish returns several times in the past. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the equity has come within striking distance of this trendline after a prolonged period above it (defined by White as 80% of the time in the past two months and eight of the last 10 trading days) six times in the past three years.
 
The shares were lower one month later after 67% of these signals, averaging a 7.5% loss. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would place NKE just above those recent lows.
 

An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could pressure NKE even lower. This is per the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.39 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits higher than 72% of readings from the past year.

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 11:51 AM
  • Midday Market Check

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Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 10:57 AM
  • Analyst Update

Netherlands-based chip stock STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM) is up 5.2% at $23.71 at last glance, after an upgrade from Jefferies to "buy" from "hold," with a price-target hike to €34 from €23. The firm expects growth in the second half of 2025, driven by several factors, including content within Apple’s upcoming iPhone 17 lineup. Separately, the company has been repurchasing its shares: 287,561 ordinary shares between Feb. 10 and Feb. 14. 

On the charts, STMicroelectronics stock has been climbing since its Feb. 3 four-year low of $21.36, though long-term pressure at the 100-day moving average appears to be keeping a cap on gains today. Year-over-year, the equity is down 42%. 

Call traders are targeting STM at triple the intraday average volume. The March 27 call is the most popular, followed by the 26 call in the same series. This represents a shift in sentiment, as the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.28 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 90% of readings from the past year. 

 

 

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 10:55 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Investors are reacting strongly to earnings reports from Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) and Bumble Inc (NASDAQ:BMBL), sending both stocks sharply lower in early trading.

Toll Brothers shares are down 5.2% to trade at $115.57, after the homebuilder missed fiscal first-quarter expectations. The company reported profits $1.75 per share on $1.84 billion in revenue, both falling short of analyst estimates. Home deliveries also came in at 1,991 units, significantly below the forecasted 2,060.

The decline extends TOL’s 2025 losses to 8.8%, with the stock now down over 24% in the last three months and earlier slipping to its lowest level since July. The downturn also triggered a surge in options trading, with activity in the normally quiet pits spiking to eight times the average intraday volume. The most popular contract is the February 121-strike put.

Meanwhile, Bumble stock was last seen down 27.50% to trade at $5.87, after the online dating company announced a dismal fiscal first-quarter forecast. Meanwhile, Bumble's fourth-quarter results met earnings projections, while its revenue exceeded estimates.

BMBL is eyeing its worst single-session loss since August, and earlier gapped to its lowest level since then. The equity dropped 56.2% over the past year and is already down nearly 29% in 2025. So far today, 12,000 calls and 17,000 puts have exchanged hands. Traders are heavily favoring the February 6-strike put, where new positions are currently being opened.

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 10:40 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Financial services giants Capital One Financial Corp (NYSE:COF) and Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) are in the spotlight, after shareholders voted to approve the former's acquisition of the latter. COF was last seen 1.3% higher  at $205.51, and DFS is up 0.8% at $197.82 at last glance. 

In response to today's headlines, BofA Global Research upgraded COF to "buy" from "neutral," and raised its price target to $235 from $207. The shares boast a 47.6% year-over-year lead, and are on track for their fourth consecutive gain. Support presents at the $190 region, recently containing a pullback from their Jan. 30, record high of $208.63. 

DFS sports a 57.8% year-over-year lead, and already added 13.3% so far in 2025. The stock is also eyeing a fourth-straight gain, as it moves closer to its Jan. 30, all-time high of $205.76, following a bounce off long-term support from their 50-day moving average.

Options traders lean bullish on both COF and DFS. This is per the stocks' 50-day call/put volume ratios of 1.08 and 1.47 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sit higher than 75% and 77% of readings from the past year, respectively.

Published on Feb 19, 2025 at 9:15 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Feb 18, 2025 at 4:26 PM
  • Market Recap
 

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