Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Feb 13, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Buzz Stocks

You’d have to look far and wide to find an area of Wall Street not rattled by tariffs or Trump trade. But some sectors are at least insulated, for now, from the coming storm. One stock to watch these week is sports betting giant DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG).

DraftKings reports fourth-quarter earnings after the close Thursday, Feb. 13. For a company stalled by profitability until only recently, DKNG has a stellar history of post-earnings moves. After the last eight reports, DraftKings has moved higher after earnings six times, with an average return of 8.6% over those last two years. This time around, options traders are anticipating a larger-than-usual, 12.9% shift, regardless of direction.

Per the American Gaming Association, for the third quarter, Americans legally wagered $30.3 billion on sports and generated $3.24 billion in quarterly revenue, up 42.4%. Despite a 20.8% year-to-date gain, DraftKings stock has pivoted around $42, per the chart below, in the last 12 months. However, the shares are now eyeing their highest close since early December. 

DKNG Stock Chart

Sports betting volume is cyclical around various seasons and always picks up around the Super Bowl. But even when the big game is over, quarterly revenue could be in a good spot until the summer. Basketball, golf, soccer, and baseball are all in the midst of their seasons and won’t wind down until June. March Madness, NBA playoffs, and the start of baseball are all flashpoints for bettors that could keep the tailwinds blowing for DKNG into the summer months.

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 4:24 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Feb 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Updated on Feb 12, 2025 at 1:35 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Wall Street has been keeping an eye on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) since President Donald Trump named CEO Elon Musk to co-lead his new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a taskforce aimed at reducing federal spending. Price updates dinged Tesla stock last month, and at last check they are down 0.9% to trade at $358.26 today  -- on track for their fourth-straight drop and fresh off their sixth weekly loss in seven. The good news is this pullback has TSLA testing a historically bullish trendline.

Tesla's pullback has placed its 80-day moving average, which is a historically bullish trendline. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the equity has come within striking distance of this moving average after a prolonged period above it (defined by White as 80% of the time over the past two months and eight of the last 10 trading days) five times over the last three years. The stock was higher one month later after 60% of these signals, averaging a 5.3% gain.

TSLA 80 Day

A shift in analyst sentiment could push the shares even higher, as 24 of of the 38 firms in question carry a tepid "hold" or worse rating. Additionally, the 12-month consensus target price of $334.54 is a already a 6.5% discount to current levels.

Options look like a solid strategy when weighing in on TSLA. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48% that sits in the 22nd percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 1:18 PM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

Earnings season can be a double-edged sword. While some stocks are rallying today on strong results, we're looking at three -- Lyft Inc (NASDAQ:LYFT), Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT), and Zillow Group Inc Class C (NASDAQ:Z) -- that are sinking after earnings.

Lyft Offers Weak Booking Guidance

Lyft stock was last seen 3.1% lower at $13.94, after fourth-quarter gross bookings of $4.28 billion missed the $4.32 billion estimate. The company’s first-quarter guidance of $4.05-$4.20 billion also fell short of analysts' $4.24 billion forecast, raising concerns about growth amid increasing competition. Since the start of 2025, LYFT is up 8.3%.

Lyft’s options pits are buzzing with activity, with 141,000 calls and 85,000 puts traded -- six times the intraday average. The weekly 2/14 13.5-strike call is seeing the most interest, with new positions opening there.

Vertiv's Strong Q4 Overshadowed by Gloomy Guidance

Vertiv stock was 7.8% lower at $113.63 at last glance, moving below its year-to-date breakeven mark despite beating fourth-quarter expectations. The company expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $0.57 and $0.63, below the $0.63 analyst estimate. Its full-year EPS forecast between $3.50 and $3.60 also disappointed, with the midpoint below expectations.

VRT is also drawing heavy options action post-earnings, with 48,000 calls and 35,000 puts exchanged, or double its usual volume. The March 90 put is the most active contract, where traders are selling to open new positions.

Zillow's Weak Q1 Guidance Offsets Revenue Beat

Last seen 10.3% lower at $77.42, Zillow stock is falling after issuing disappointing first-quarter guidance, despite a Q4 revenue beat. The company expects first-quarter revenue between $575 and $590 million, below the $599.8 million analyst estimate, raising concerns about future growth in a sluggish housing market. Still, Z boasts a 4.6% year-to-date lead.

Z's typically quiet options market is seeing an uptick, with 14,000 calls and 13,000 puts traded -- 5 times the intraday average. The March 95 call is attracting the most attention.

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 1:10 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Pharmaceutical concern ADMA Biologics Inc (NASDAQ:ADMA) has been consolidating above familiar pressure at the $16 region since mid-January. A breakout could be on the way, however, as the stock just came into contact with a historically bullish trendline. 

Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, ADMA has come within striking distance of its 200-day moving average after a lengthy period above it (defined by White as 80% of the time over the past two months and 8 of the last 10 trading days). This has occurred five other times over the last three years, after which the stock was higher one month later 80% of the time with an average 21.2% gain. 

From its current perch at $15.61, a move of similar magnitude would put ADMA at $18.91 -- much closer to its Nov. 11 record peak of $23.64. Year over year, the stock is outperforming with a 200% lead. 

ADMA Feb12

Short covering could provide tailwinds as well. Though short interest has been slowly unwinding, it still represents 5.8% of the stock's available float, or over five days' worth of pent-up buying power. 

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 1:00 PM
  • The Week Ahead
          
Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 12:06 PM
  • Midday Market Check

4 .

 

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Fears surrounding higher interest rates reemerged after today's hotter-than-expected inflation data for January. While the reading is also impacting gold prices, the precious metal is fresh off a record-setting run in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs, which boosted demand for the safe-haven commodity as investors monitor a potential trade war. Below, let's check in with two gold mining giants amid corporate earnings. 

GOLD Eyes Best Day Since August

Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) stock is up 6.1% to trade at $18.11 at last glance -- its highest level since November -- after the company beat fourth-quarter profit estimates and unveiled a $1 billion share buyback program. On track for its best day since August, GOLD sports a 28.7% year-over-year lead, and earlier conquered its 100-day moving average.

Options volume is running at triple the intraday average volume today, with 69,000 calls and 18,000 puts exchanged so far today. The most popular contract by far is the March 80 call.

NEM Gears Up for Earnings

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) will announce fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday, Feb. 20. The security was last seen up 1.9% to trade at $46.37, and sports a 44.1% year-over-year lead, with 24% added just this year. The shares started the week with a pop to their highest level since late October, and are consolidating above their own 100-day trendline.

Newmont stock has a mixed history of post-earnings reactions, finishing four of its last eight next-day sessions higher, and four lower. This includes a 14.7% drop after its most recent earnings report. The security averaged a move of 6.2% over the past two years, regardless of direction, and this time the options pits are pricing in a larger swing of 8.1%. 

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Updated on Feb 12, 2025 at 11:40 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 11:11 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Hotter-than-expected inflation data is pressuring stocks this morning, but the shares of CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS)DoorDash Inc (NASDAQ:DASH), and Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) are bucking today's headwinds, thanks to a round of upbeat earnings.

CVS Eyes Best Day Ever

CVS is up 14.9% to trade at $63.22 at last glance, after the pharma retailer reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, while its 2025 profit outlook met expectations. Shares are on track for a third-straight gain and best single-day percentage pop on record, and earlier surged to their highest level since October. CVS has already added 40.2% in 2025.

DoorDash Stock Hits Record High

DASH was seen up 2.6% to trade at $198.13, and earlier hit a record high of $200.31 after the food delivery name surpassed revenue expectations for the fourth quarter, announced a $5 billion share buyback, and issued an upbeat demand forecast. The stock boasts a 71.1% year-over-year lead, and at least 14 analysts hiked their price objectives, including Deutsche Bank to $246 from $224.

Upstart Stock Upgraded

UPST is up a 29.5% to trade at $87.21 at last check, set for its sixth gain in the last seven sessions, as well as its best day since August. Today's surge comes after the company shared a surprise profit for the fourth quarter, beat revenue estimates, and issued a strong full-year revenue outlook. Shares surged to a two-year high of $89.47 earlier and now sport a 214.1% nine-month lead, after four price-target hikes and an upgrade from J.P. Morgan Securities to "neutral" from "underweight." 

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 10:42 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Tech stock Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) is up 3.9% at $40.12 at last glance, despite the company slashing its 2025 revenue forecast and missing fiscal second-quarter results estimates, after its 2026 guidance came in much higher than expected. CEO Charles Liang also stated that he is "confident" the company will be able to file its annual report by the Feb. 25 deadline. 

Outsized moves are common for Super Micro Computer stock. In fact, the equity hasn't seen a swing below 5% since Feb. 3. Five of the last six sessions were positive, including a 17.6% pop to kick off the week, as the stock climbs back up toward the $50 level, which has capped gains since August. Year over year, SMCI is down 48.2%. 

Options traders are chiming in straight out of the gate. So far, 341,000 calls and 207,000 puts have been exchanged, which is quadruple the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The weekly 2/14 45- and 50-strike calls are the most popular, with new positions opening at the former.

This preference for calls isn't unusual, as calls have been picked up at their fastest pace all year over the last 10 weeks. This is per SMCI's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.92 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks higher than all other readings from the past 12 months. 

Published on Feb 12, 2025 at 9:06 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ:GILD) are up 4% in premarket trading, after the company delivered a strong fourth-quarter earnings beat. The biopharmaceutical giant reported $1.90 earnings per share (EPS), exceeding analyst estimates by 11.7%, on $7.57 billion in revenue -- a 6.4% year-over-year increase that topped expectations. Gilead also issued solid fiscal 2025 guidance, forecasting $28.4 billion in revenue and an adjusted EPS of $7.90, slightly above analyst projections. They also hiked their quarterly dividend to 79 cents per share.

In response to the triple play, no fewer than eight brokerages hiked their price targets, the highest coming from Morgan Stanley to $124 from $113. Despite GILD’s strong fundamentals, 12 of 29 analysts still rate the stock a "hold", while the consensus 12-month price target of $102.86 is soon to be a slim discount to today's perch. In other words, more bull notes could keep the wind at the equity's back.

If this momentum continues, Gilead Sciences stock could challenge its nearly nine-year high of $101.51, reached on Feb. 5. The stock has carved out a channel of higher highs since a May 31 two-year bottom of $62.07, gaining 42.1% over the last nine months.

Options traders are in luck as the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at 84 out of a possible 100. This suggests Gilead has tended to exceed options traders' volatility expectations over the past 12 months.

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