Stocks are sliding to close out the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and S&P 500 Index (SPX) sporting midday losses. The IXIC and SPX are on track for a fifth-straight weekly loss -- the latter's longest such streak since May 2022 -- while the DJI is eyeing a modest weekly win. Investors should tread carefully, however, as “quadruple witching” Friday (meaning stock options, index futures options, and single-stock futures will expire) may lead to more volatility.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• Nike stock eyes worst day since June.
• Auto pullback pressures steel stock lower.
• Plus, LEN options fly off the shelves; SMCI upgraded; and chip stock brushing off quarterly win.

Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN) stock is getting blasted in the options pits, with 15,000 calls and 21,000 puts exchanged so far today, which is 9 times the volume typically seen at this point. Positions are being sold to open at the most popular contract, the expiring March 108 put. LEN was last seen 5.4% lower to trade at $113.63 and earlier slipped to a 52-week low of $111.26, brushing off upbeat fiscal first-quarter results after its new orders outlook missed the mark. Today's pullback has the shares headed for their worst day since Feb. 7. The stock has tumbled 28.8% in the last 12 months and is struggling with long-term pressure from its 40-day moving average.

Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock is leading the SPX today, last seen up 4% to trade at $40.66 after an upgrade from J.P. Morgan Securities to "neutral" from "underweight," with the firm noting filing uncertainty is in the rearview mirror. While the stock still carries a 57.7% year-over-year deficit, it has amassed a 34.2% lead so far in 2025, with support stemming from its 80-day moving average.

Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) stock is near the bottom of the SPX today, 8.8% lower to trade at $93.95 at last check, despite the semiconductor giant's better-than-expected results for the fiscal second quarter and an upbeat outlook. The equity is looking to extend its 14% year-over-year deficit, pushing aside yesterday's rally that ran out of steam at $105.

Brushing off a fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue beat, Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) was last seen down 7.7% to trade at $66.30, after saying it expects sales to decline sharply in the fiscal fourth quarter due to restructuring efforts, lackluster consumer confidence, as well as tariffs. At least 10 firms slashed their price targets in response, including J.P. Morgan Securities to $64 from $73.

NKE is now pacing for its fourth-straight daily loss and worst single-day percentage drop since June. The shares are extending a 34.2% year-over-year deficit, and earlier slipped to a nearly five-year low of $65.18.

Options traders are chiming in, with 108,000 calls and 98,000 puts exchanged so far today, which is 5 times the volume typically seen at this point. The most popular contract by far is the March 65 put, but new positions are being sold to open at the 66 put in that series, with both expiring after today's close.

Nike stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands in the 95th percentile of its annual range. This indicates short-term options traders lean bearish.

Postal stock FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX) is plummeting today, last seen down 11.2% at $218.29 and trading at its lowest levels since June 2023. The company reported a fiscal third-quarter earnings miss, but more importantly, cut its profit outlook for the third time in a row, citing “continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy," and leaving many on Wall Street concerned. 

A flood of analysts slashed their price targets after the event, including J.P. Morgan Securities to $323 from $372. Loop Capital downgraded the shares to "sell" from "hold," calling it a "really bad recession stock." 

Today's bear gap has the equity slipping below recent support at $240, and on track to close its third-straight weekly loss. Since the start of the year, FDX is down 21.9%. 

Of the 33 analysts in coverage, 21 still carry a "buy" or better rating, while the 12-month consensus price target of $312.15 is still a 41.4% premium to current levels. This leaves plenty of room for bear notes that could provide headwinds in the short term. 

Iron & steel stock Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) was last seen down 3.5% at $9.20, after news broke that the steel producer will temporarily idle two Minnesota facilities. The move, reported by the Star Tribune, will result in hundreds of job cuts as auto manufacturers scale back orders in response to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff policies.

On the charts, CLF sports a 2.2% year-to-date deficit. The equity is also off 57.1% over the last 12 months and heading for its worst weekly drop since mid-December, though it's still attempting to distance itself from its March 11, more than four-year low of $8.50. 

Short interest has started to tick up, rising 28.6% over the last two reporting periods. The 54.24 million shares sold short represent 11.2% of the stock's available float. It would take three days for shorts to cover, at CLF's average daily pace of trading.

Meanwhile, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Cleveland-Cliffs stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 8.08 ranks in the 82nd percentile of annual readings. This means options traders have been much more bullish than usual over the last two weeks.

You might assume that speculating with options and March Madness have very little in common, but you'd be wrong. In their most basic form, they are two forms of speculation that have become a key framework in the social fabric, for a lot of the same reasons. The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) reported total options volume of 1.12 billion contracts traded in February alone, with a 2025 year-to-date average daily volume of over 57 million, up nearly 20%. 

Filling out brackets has always been popular, but sports betting’s surge into the mainstream since the pandemic has taken it to another level. An estimated $3.1 billion is expected to be legally wagered on the men’s and women’s college basketball tournaments this year, a 14.81% increase from $2.7 billion in 2024, according to the American Gaming Association.

Before you stress about that #12 vs. #5 seed, know that the keys to success on options trading and 'bracketology' are actually fundamentally similar.

With the 2025 NCAA men's basketball tournament set to kick off in a few hours, we thought we'd examine the eerily parallel path to both options-trading and bracket victory. So, whether you're about to embark on your options-trading journey or just now looking at the Field of 68, make sure you heed these 10 Commandments:  

Commandment 1: Thou Shalt Not Play If Thou Can't Pay

Options: Don't risk precious capital if you can't afford to lose it. When playing with options, you're going to have some losing trades along the way -- it's inevitable. As such, it's not wise to wager bill money or your life savings -- no matter what kind of "hot tip" or "good feeling" you have beforehand. As Schaeffer's founder and CEO Bernie Schaeffer says, "intelligent trading decisions are rarely made when 'scared money' is involved."

Bracketology: Simply filling out a bracket is fun. However, it's even more fun when you win, obviously. Don't be that guy dodging your dues -- it's not fair to the winner at payout time, or the bracket manager who has to take a six iron to your knees. If you don't want to fork over the cash, there are plenty of online leagues that let you join for free.

Commandment 2: Practice Makes Perfect

Options: Before risking precious capital, try paper trading first. Utilizing a virtual trading tool (provided by many online brokers) allows you to test your trading knowledge, theories, and risk tolerance to see which strategies work for you and which don't. Make sure to take diligent notes in order to analyze each trade's aftermath, which will help you discover what kind of options trader you are and strive to be.

Bracketology: Before you submit your bracket, try a few paper brackets first, just like paper trading. Simply running through the bracket a few times will help you encounter matchups you want to analyze later. Fill out a few copies, take a look at them, and see what feels right.

Commandment 3: Thou Shalt Not Play by the Seat of Thine Pants

Options: Research, research, research. It's crucial to examine a security thoroughly before initiating an option trade. For a multi-dimensional, well-rounded analysis, Schaeffer's Expectational Analysis® methodology encourages investors to study a stock from fundamental, technical, and sentiment perspectives. You can get a macro feel for the market environment with our Monday Morning Outlook or Indicator of the Week.

Bracketology: Research, research, research. While it's a rare feat to know the intricacies of every team, it's not smart to "wing it" without doing your homework. Bracket websites such as ESPN and Yahoo supply you with the stats of each matchup. Run the numbers. And don't forget to check the injury reports. For example, Iowa State may look like a dangerous #3 seed, but just lost their point guard to a season-ending injury. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg is nursing a sprained ankle. Keep tabs, monitor, and remember that research allows you to mine value where others don’t see it outright.

Commandment 4: Thou Shalt Consider Outside Circumstances

Options: On the same note as No. 3, it's essential for option traders to be aware of outside circumstances that could be a catalyst higher or lower for the stock. For instance, before implementing an option play on stock XYZ, make sure you check the company's corporate calendar. A significant event like a date in the earnings confessional, or the release of monthly sales figures, could potentially impact option prices and your strategy.

Bracketology: While a matchup could look good on paper, a team's performance could be affected by circumstances outside of its control. Duke starts the first weekend in Raleigh, St. John's starts at Rick Pitino's old stomping grounds in Providence, and the Final Four in San Antonio is an easy trek for Houston. These things matter; leave no stone unturned!

Commandment 5: Thou Shalt Do the Math

Options: Before entering a trade, plot the numbers. You should be cognizant of the breakeven levels, profit/loss potential, and any commissions or margin requirements to best understand where your play stands at any given time.

Bracketology: The odds of picking all upsets is not in your favor. While a few may make you look cool, you want your Elite 8 ponies to be alive after the first weekend. It's best to sprinkle in some risky upset picks with chalk.

Commandment 6: Thou Shalt Raid the Bargain Bin...at your own Risk

Options: It's basic economics that an item in high demand will command a higher premium. Options are no exception to this rule. By comparing a stock's historical volatility to an option's implied volatility, you can gauge whether the option is relatively cheap or expensive at the moment. However, seasoned option speculators can take advantage of inflated premiums by employing strategies like the short put or short call.

Bracketology: "An item in high demand will command a higher premium." In bracket speak, that means picking a chalky bracket might be safe, but won't win you money. You win money by nailing a pick amid the chaos. Last year if you won, it wasn't because you picked UConn -- the one of the best tournament teams of all time --.it was probably because you nailed Alabama's big run, or maybe even NC State! Those teams had lower implied volatility, and thus had value. That's the name of the game, especially this year, with the four one seeds looking so strong.

Commandment 7: Thou Shalt Hunt for Sleepers and Busts

Options: As contrarians, we like to find outperforming stocks surrounded by skepticism. If the shares of an equity have powered higher on the charts, but the Street still remains leery, the unwinding of that pessimism -- in the form of upgrades, price-target boosts, a short-covering rally, or a reversal in sentiment in the options pits -- could all act as catalysts even higher for the stock. On the flip side, contrarians also enjoy foraging for underperforming stocks surrounded by optimism. If a security is in the midst of a long-term downtrend, but the Street remains bullishly biased, an unwinding of that optimism could pressure the stock even lower as the bulls abandon ship.

Bracketology: Everyone loves a Cinderella. I know I just said don't get too upset crazy, but if you find a team with good metrics and a favorable matchup, don't be afraid to ride them far into the tournament. See above re: NC State. Basketball is a game of runs and momentum, and if you hit on an upset pick, your bracket will look awfully strong in three weeks.

Commandment 8: Thou Shalt Not Be Afraid to Hedge

Options: Unsure about the future of a stock or particular sector? Try hedging your bets pairs trading. By simultaneously opening two related option positions, you allow yourself a safety net to guard against an unanticipated move in a specific sector. For example, to hedge against potential weakness in the pharmaceutical sector, an investor could buy a call on outperforming ZYX, and simultaneously purchase a put on underperforming rival XYZ. As long as the profits from one trade outweigh the losses from the other, your pairs trade is money. Meanwhile, you can handcuff a long position with a short position, if you want to reduce your risk on a single stock. Shareholders of XYZ can "handcuff" their stake with a protective put, for example, while modestly bullish traders can initiate a relatively conservative play on XYZ by executing a long call spread.

Bracketology: This is a more nuanced strategy. If you think a #13 seed will upset a #4 seed, 'hedge' that upset pick by picking the #5 team in the conjoining bracket. If you think a double-digit seed is making a run to the Elite 8 -- as one does nearly every year -- pick chalky teams around it to compensate.

Commandment 9: Thou Shalt Know Where Thou Stand

Options: Don't be a passive investor -- ignoring your trades could be fatal to your portfolio. Once you've initiated your option play, it's vital that you keep close tabs on the position. If you see that your position is tanking at a rapid-fire pace, simply praying for a miracle often exacerbates the losses. Instead, avoid clinging to losing trades, and consider setting stop-loss levels to prevent a massive deficit in your trading capital.

Bracketology: This is a commandment that should be in effect in November, when the season starts. You don't have to be Jon Rothstein, watching every game. But tune in to the big games, check out an ESPN clip here and there, and know the landscape. It will help inform your bracket picks come Selection Sunday. You wouldn't buy a stock before earnings if you haven't followed them for some time, would you?

Commandment 10: Thou Shalt Lose With Dignity

Options: As mentioned earlier, all option traders will take a hit every now and again. The trick -- besides proper allocation and portfolio management -- is to take the losing trades in stride. Have realistic expectations heading into every trade, don't let fear or greed outweigh common sense, and -- most importantly -- stay in the game.

Bracketology: As much as it hurts to lose to your beloved Aunt Kathy, who picked teams based off mascot cuteness, making a bracket is just a game. Just as no one likes a showboat, no one enjoys a poor sport, so stay classy through the tournament and, more importantly, have fun. Good luck!

Major indexes are moving higher midday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) up nearly 200 points while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) cling to modest gains. Signs of a resilient job market and Fed rhetoric that still supported the possibility of two rate hikes in 2025 are lifting sentiment, with all three benchmarks headed toward weekly wins. Also supporting a solid economic outlook is better-than-expected existing home sales, which rose 4.2% between February and January, per the National Association of Realtors.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• 10 ways to win March Madness and Wall Street.
• Analyst growing wary of Rivian Automotive stock.
• Plus, options pop on retail giant; two of the best and worst stocks today.

Retailer American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE:AEO) is up 2.5% to trade at $12.21 this afternoon, seeing unusual options activity in the options pits, though the catalyst remains unclear. So far 35,000 puts have been exchanged today, 14 times the average daily pace. Most popular are the April 10 and 11 puts, where new positions are being bought to open. AEO is attempting to recover from its March 13, post-earnings drop of 4.1%, but remains close to its July 2023 bottom. Year-over-year, the stock has shed 50%.

Enjoying a spot near the top of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today is  Darden Restaurants Inc (NYSE:DRI), up 7.6% to trade at $202.49, the Olive Garden parent brushing off a fiscal third-quarter earnings miss. Darden saw a boost in sales due to a handful of new restaurant locations, including its Tex-Mex chain, Chuy's. Now up 8.5% in 2025, long-term support at the 80-day moving average has kept losses in check. Today's pop has the equity eying its best day since Dec. 19.

Logistics giant ZTO Express Inc (NYSE:ZTO) is one of the worst stocks on the NYSE today, gapping 6.8% lower to trade at $20.29, after suffering a downgrade to "neutral" from "overweight" at J.P. Morgan Securities. Today's bear note comes just after the shares surged to a post-earnings peak of $22.01 yesterday, and now has the equity on track for its worst daily drop since May 2023. ZTO is clinging to its year-to-date gain of 3%.

Option pricing is calculated using the Black-Scholes model, which takes four influential factors into account: the price of an underlying stock (assuming constant drift and volatility), an option’s strike price, the amount of time until the option expires, and a constant, risk-free interest rate. Today, we’ll dive into two of these option pricing influences: intrinsic value and time value.

Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value is the difference between the underlying stock’s current market price and the option’s strike price. Only in-the-money options carry intrinsic value. A call option is in the money when the stock price exceeds the strike price, whereas a put option is in the money when the stock price falls below the strike price.

To find the intrinsic value of a call option, subtract the strike price from the stock price. Do the opposite to find the intrinsic value of a put option.

For example, if you buy a 100-strike call option and the underlying stock price rises to $110 before the option’s expiration date, the intrinsic value of your in-the-money call option would be $10 (110 - 100 = $10). If you buy a 100-strike put option and the underlying stock price drops to $90, the intrinsic value of your in-the-money put option would also be $10 (100 - 90 = $10).

Time Value

Time value, also called extrinsic value, is based on the time an option has until expiration and its implied volatility. The more time an option has until expiration, the greater time value it carries.

Hypothetically, more time allows in-the-money options to increase in intrinsic value, and out-of-the-money or at-the-money options to move into the money. Since longer-term options buy traders time for the underlying stock to move as they expected, options with greater time value cost more. An October XYZ 100 put option, for example, would cost more than a July XYZ 100 put, because the October option allows more time for the stock price to move lower than the strike price.  

At-the-money and out-of-the-money options are comprised of only time value, since they can't harbor intrinsic value. Call and put options are at the money when the stock price equals the strike price. Call options are out of the money when the stock price falls below the strike price; the opposite is true for put options.

Time Decay

An option’s time value decreases as it approaches its expiration date. We call this time decay. As an option’s expiration date nears, the rate of time decay increases. Thus, time decay works in favor of an option seller and against an option buyer. This is because time decay allots option buyers less time for the underlying stock to move as they expected, and a lower extrinsic value translates into a cheaper option contract, which means a smaller profit gain for option buyers able to liquidate their positions.

Option sellers are in favor of time decay, though, as their goal is usually for the option to remain out of the money through expiration, rendering the option worthless and allowing them to pocket the initial premium received.   

An option is only worth its intrinsic value upon expiration. Thus, at-the-money and out-of-the-money options are worth nothing at expiration, since neither carry intrinsic value.

Sports betting stocks are in the spotlight as March Madness drives a surge in wagering activity, with DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG), Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD), and Flutter Entertainment PLC (NYSE:FLUT) all making notable moves. The annual college basketball tournament is one of the biggest betting events of the year, and investors are closely watching these stocks for signs of sector momentum.

DraftKings stock was last seen up 1.5% at $39.09, though it has cooled off in recent weeks. After hitting a two-and-a-half-year high of $53.61 on Feb. 14, the stock has pulled back more than 27%. Despite this dip, DKNG remains nearly 5% higher year-to-date.

Robinhood is generating buzz with its recent push into sports betting through the launch of Robinhood Sports. While still in its early stages, the expansion has fueled optimism about new revenue streams. HOOD was last seen 1.9% higher at $43.66, after climbing to a nearly four-year high of $66.91 on Feb. 13 before retreating to the $36 area earlier this month. The stock is regaining momentum, now up 17.1% in 2025 and boasting a 135.4% year-over-year lead.

Meanwhile, shares of Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, were up 1.5% at $244.82 at last check, as the company continues to dominate the U.S. online sports betting market. FLUT reached an all-time high of $299.73 on Feb. 14 but has since pulled back, now down 5.4% year-to-date.

Temu and Pinduoduo parent PDD Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PDD) reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue before the open today, dinged by stiff competition and weak demand in China. The company still doubled its annual profit to $15.4 billion, however. 

At last glance, PDD was up 2% at $128.48, reversing its earlier losses and brushing off a price-target cut from Jefferies to $156 from $171. Familiar pressure at the $130 level is keeping gains in check, however. Year-to-date, the equity is outperforming the broader market with a 32.5% lead. 

Over in the options pits, PDD has seen 57,000 calls and 40,000 puts exchanged, which is quadruple the overall volume typically seen at this point. The March 135 and 130 call contracts are the most popular, with new positions opening at the weekly 4/25 128-strike put. 

The e-commerce name has tended to outperform options traders' volatility expectations over the past year, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 out of 100.