Semiconductor, bank, and homebuilding stocks tend to outperform in Q4, historically
Somehow we're less than three months away from the end of 2024. With the fourth quarter already upon us, we spent last week digging into seasonal data to find names that could finish the year strong. Three exchange-traded funds (ETF) stand out as top performers in the fourth quarter, historically.
Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White analyzed the fourth-quarter performance of notable ETFs in the last decade. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) leads the pack, boasting a 9.9% return in the last 10 years with a 90% win rate. Last seen trading at $245.42, the chip ETF is up 41.1% in 2024, but is well off its July 11 record highs of $283.07. SMH is also getting support from its 200-day moving average.
Another outperformer is Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), with an average quarterly gain of 8.9% and 90% win rate. XLF is 20.3% higher this year, and on Sept. 3 hit a record high of $45.87. The bank ETF was last seen up 1.1% to trade at $45.36.
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) averaged a 9.6% gain in the fourth quarter in the last decade, and finished seven out of the past 10 years higher. ITB is down 2.8% to trade at $122.52 at last check, but is up 20.4% in 2024 and scored a Sept. 19 record high of $129.29. This ETF will be a fun one to watch as the housing market sits at an inflection point heading into the new year.