Schaeffer's Top Stock Picks for '25

Moderna Stock Heads for Worst Day Ever on Forecast Cut

Options traders are targeting the stock at a larger-than-usual clip

Deputy Editor
Jan 13, 2025 at 10:34 AM
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Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) lowered its 2025 revenue forecast to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, marking a $1 billion reduction from previous estimates. The adjustment reflects weaker demand for its Covid-19 and RSV vaccines, with the company projecting that most of the revenue will materialize in the second half of the year.

In response, MRNA was last seen 24% lower to trade at $32.11, at its lowest level since April 2020 -- before its pandemic-era surge -- and heading for its worst-ever single-day skid. The equity is coming off its third-straight annual loss and faces a steep recovery challenge in 2025, already down more than 22% in the first two weeks of January.

Options traders are speculating following the news. Already today, 40,000 puts and 77,000 calls have exchanged hands, which is 4 times the average intraday volume. Most popular is the January 2025 38 call, followed by the 34.50 call in the same monthly series, with new positions opening at both.

This marks a shift in sentiment, per MRNA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 52% that sits in the low 1st percentile of annual readings. This implies short-term options traders have been more call-biased. 

 
 

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