The stock is surging on a better-than-expected earnings report
The shares of Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) are enjoying a nice post-earnings lift today, last seen up 7.1% at $66.93 after sharing a first-quarter profits that beat expectations and a 71% jump in revenues since last year. The company said it expects the remainder of 2022 to be strong as the prices of crop nutrients surge, pushed higher by sanctions on Russia -- a major exporter of potash and other essential crop nutrients. A strong earnings report isn't the only thing providing tailwinds, however. MOS just pulled back to a key trendline on the charts that could, if history is any indicator, send the stock even higher in the coming month.
Specifically, MOS just came within one standard deviation of its 60-day moving average after a lengthy period above the trendline, per a study from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Over the past three years, there have been five similar occurrences, with the security logging a positive one-month return 60% of the time and averaging a 10.4% pop. A similar move from its current perch would put Mosaic stock just below the $74 level, and closer to its April 18, 11-year high of $79.28.
While analysts have yet to chime in, Mosaic stock could pick up some additional bull notes. Of the 13 in coverage, six call MOS a "hold. " Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $75.05 is a 13.4% premium to current levels.
A shift in Mosaic stock's options pits could also put some wind at the stock's back. MOS sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.62, which stands higher than 71% of readings from the past year. In other words, short-term options traders have been more put-biased than usual of late.
This shift looks like it's already taking place. So far today, 36,000 calls and 22,000 puts have been exchanged, which is double the intraday average. The two most popular positions are the January 2023 95-strike call, followed by the May 70 call.