Schaeffer's Top Stock Picks for '25

Call Traders Unfazed by Chip Stock’s Slow Start

A flashing bull signal could provide even more tailwinds

Deputy Editor
Jan 13, 2025 at 1:46 PM
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Semiconductor giant Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) was the standout stock of 2024, fueled by surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips. However, the company is off to a slower start in 2025, down 1.9% year-to-date, though options traders remain highly active in NVDA.

The stock recently reappeared on Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of equities with the highest options volume over the past two weeks. Specifically, 43,342,600 calls and 19,515,287 puts were traded in the last 10 sessions — the most of any stock on the list. Notably, the weekly 1/10 150-strike call was the most traded contract.

MAO Chart January 132025

Call traders are in luck, too, as NVDA's pullback puts it near a historically bullish trendline. The security is just beneath its 80-day moving average. According to separate data from White, Nvidia stock saw five similar signals during the past three years. The equity was higher a month later 80% of the time, and averaged an 8.7% gain.

Shares were last seen 2.8% lower at $132.17. A move matching the historical average gain would push Nvidia above $143, putting it back on track to challenge its Jan. 7 record high of $153.13. This pullback — with the stock down 11.5% over the past week but still boasting a 141% year-over-year lead — could offer an intriguing entry point.

NVDA Chart January 132025

Now looks like a great opportunity to bet on the equity's next moves with options, as it sports a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 43% that sits at the low 6th percentile of readings from the past 12 months, meaning premiums are affordably priced at this time.
 
Plus, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at 81 out of a possible 100. This suggests Nvidia stock usually exceeded options traders' annual volatility expectations.

 
 

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