Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

Foot Locker Inc (NYSE:FL) delivered a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report, with higher-than-expected adjusted earnings of 86 cents per share surpassing analyst expectations of 72 cents, according to FactSet. However, revenue of $2.24 billion missed the forecasted $2.32 billion, reflecting a 4.6% year-over-year decline excluding currency fluctuations.

Comparable-store sales rose 2.6%, showing some resilience in Foot Locker’s retail footprint, though the company noted the fourth quarter in 2023 included an extra week, impacting year-over-year comparisons.

At last glance, FL was up 10.1% at $19.21, after earlier surging to an intraday high of $19.67. The stock has struggled in 2025, down 12.1% year-to-date, and yesterday hit $16.92 — its lowest level since September 2023 — bringing its year-over-year decline to 43.8%.

Options traders are actively speculating on the stock’s next move, with 5,564 calls and 4,406 puts exchanged so far today, seven times the average intraday volume. The most popular contracts are the 3/7 20-strike call and the 17.50-strike put in the same weekly series.

Published on Mar 5, 2025 at 9:17 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) are up 2.1% in premarket trading, after an upgrade at William Blair to "market perform" from "underperform." The brokerage cited "positive developments" for the data analytics stock since a selloff in connection to the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) layoffs.

There's plenty of room for other analysts to strike a bullish tone. Coming into today, 16 of the 19 firms in question called the equity a tepid "hold" or worse. Short sellers are building their positions, too, with short interest rising 13.3% over the most recent reporting period.

The security is fresh off its worst weekly performance since 2021, with a series of bear gaps knocking it off a Feb. 19, record high of $125.41. However, PLTR weathered yesterday's tariff-driven storm, settling higher despite investors rotating out of the tech sector and into cyclical plays. A floor appears to have emerged at the $80 level, however, and PLTR still sports a 281.9% nine-month lead.

A shift in sentiment could fuel additional tailwinds, per the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio stands higher than 97% of all annuals readings.

Options look like a solid route, too. PLTR typically outperformed options traders' volatility expectations in the last year, per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 84 out of 100. 

Published on Mar 5, 2025 at 9:08 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Mar 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Updated on Mar 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • Indicator of the Week

Before yesterday’s tariff-fueled selloff, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) had already pulled back 5% from its mid-February all-time high. Sentiment surveys, such as the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll, indicate investors are getting nervous. Is their concern justified? This week, I’m analyzing historical 5% pullbacks to see if it’s a threshold that increases the likelihood of a larger decline. I’m examining pullbacks from a few angles to see if we can gain insights into where we go from here.

Stocks After 5% Pullbacks

For the data below, I went back to 1950 and found each time the SPX fell 5% after reaching an all-time high. In the 30 days after the initial pullback, the SPX averaged a return of 1.9%, with 74% of the returns positive. The second table shows the typical one month returns since 1950 for the SPX was 0.75%, with 62% of the returns positive. From the table below, it indicates 5% pullbacks have been good short-term buying opportunities.

The returns over the next year, however, show slight underperformance. The last row of the table shows the percentage of time a new high was reached in the timeframe. So, 32% of the time, the SPX hit a new high in the next month. 68% of the time, a new high was reached within three months. One interesting statistic is that after the index pulled back 5%, there was a 65% likelihood of seeing a new high before seeing the pullback reached the correction level of 10%.

SPX5to1950

This is already the second 5% pullback of 2025. The SPX also experienced a 5% loss from a mid-January high. This made me curious if the second pullback of 5% within a short period meant anything different. The table below summarizes the data following the second pullback within a three-month period. The returns out to six months weren’t much different from the returns after a general 5% pullback.

The main difference is in the 12-month return column. In the year after these second 5% pullbacks, there’s more underperformance. The SPX averaged a return of 6.4% over the next year with 63% of the returns positive. The table above shows the typical 12-month return after a pullback was 8.3% with 70% of the returns positive. In the 30 times the SPX had a second 5% pullback within three months, 67% of the time, the index reached a new high before correction territory.

SPX25to1950

Stocks After 10% Pullbacks

For future reference (and hopefully, not near future), the table below shows how the SPX has performed in the aftermath of a 10% pullback which is often referred to as correction territory. The second table below shows the typical returns for comparison (it’s the same table we saw earlier). Just like with 5% returns, this does not seem to be a tipping point where things get significantly scarier.

Also, just like with the 5% pullback data, the short-term returns tended to outperform compared to normal market returns then the one-year returns slightly underperformed. However, in the case of a 10% pullback, it was basically a coinflip whether you see a new high next or a 20% loss from the high which is considered a recession. Specifically, 15 out of 29 times a new high was reached before the 20% pullback level was reached.

SPX10to1950

Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Updated on Mar 4, 2025 at 4:28 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 12:58 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

The stock market is selling off, with Canada and China retaliating against President Donald Trump's tariffs, and Mexico promising to announce its response on Sunday. Consumer goods stocks Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG), Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE:CL), and Kimberly-Clark Corp (NYSE:KMB) are evading losses, though, as investors rotate into cyclical names and out of tech.

Selloff Chart

PG Eyes 4th-Straight Gain

PG was last seen up 0.9% to trade at $177.17, and earlier gapped to its highest level since November. The shares are pacing for their fourth-straight daily gain, and finished six of the past seven weeks with gains, contributing to their 11.2% year-over-year gain.

CL Topples Resistance

CL shed 13.5% in the last six months, but is up 0.5% to trade at $93.28 at last check -- its highest level since early December. The equity is staging a bounce of a Feb. 18, 52-week low of $85.32, and looking to consolidate above the 100-day moving average after yesterday securing its first close above the trendline since October.

KMB Boasts Technical Support

KMB is up 0.2% at $143.72 at last glance, trading at its highest level since October and on track for its fifth gain in the last six sessions. Support at the 20-day moving average has contained several pullbacks since January, with the stock also toppling overhead pressure at the $140 level, which capped its January rally. So far this year, KMB has added 9.4%.

Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 12:46 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Semiconductor stock Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MRVL) is up 2.7% to trade at $88.13 at last glance, brushing off today's headwinds, though it was earlier on track for its seventh loss in nine days. A short-term bounce stock back up toward its Jan. 23 all-time high of $127.48 could also be in the cards, as the equity is flashing a historically bullish signal on the charts. 

Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, MRVL has pulled back to its 260-day moving average. Specifically, the stock is within 0.75 of the trendline's average true range's (ATR), or 20-day ATR, for the first time in at least eight of the past 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. 

MRVL Mar4

Marvell Technologies stock has seen five similar signals over the past three years, after which it was higher one month later 80% of the time, with an average 11.6% gain. From its current perch, a similar move would push the security back up near $95.  

Furthermore, MRVL's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 22.5 stands in "oversold" territory, which is typically indicative of a short-term bounce. Year over year, the equity is up 11%. 

Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 12:20 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis
 
Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Updated on Mar 4, 2025 at 12:11 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are freefalling as President Donald Trump's tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China take effect. Trade war concerns continue to escalate, with Mexico promising to announce retaliatory tariffs on Sunday. Canada is looking to place a 25% tariff, while China revealed an up to 15% levy on certain U.S. products earlier today.

In response, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is down 687 points. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are sporting triple-digit losses of their own, the latter flirting with correction territory as several major companies warn of higher costs.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

MMC 0304

Truist Financial Corp (NYSE:TFC) stock is getting pummeled in the options pits today, with 27,000 calls exchanged so far today -- 13 times the volume typically seen at this point -- as opposed to 4,345 puts. The most popular contract is the June 50 call, where new positions are being bought to open. TFC was last seen down 4.4% at $43.42 amid broader market weakness, and eyeing its biggest single-day percentage loss since December. The financial services stock still sports a 19.7% year-over-year lead, however.

Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) stock is among the SPX's outperformers today, up 3.5% to trade at $146.68 at last glance, though a catalyst for today's surge remains unclear. The equity is eyeing a third-straight daily gain. Shares continue to struggle with overhead pressure at the $150 level, though, which has been capping price action since January. In the last 12 months, BIIB shed more than 33%.

Despite the tech retailer reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and raising its outlook, Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) stock is at the bottom of the SPX today. The equity was last seen down 13.4% at $75.12 amid trade war concerns, and could today see its third daily loss in four, as well as its biggest loss since March 2020. Shares are also breaking below recent support at the 40-day moving average, as they extend a 25.1% nine-month deficit.

BBY 40 Day

Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 11:47 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA) was last seen up 7.1% at $10.99, amid news the embattled drugstore giant is nearing a $10 billion deal with private equity firm Sycamore Partners that would take it private, possibly as soon as Thursday. Per the Wall Street Journal, the firm would keep the core U.S. retail business and sell off or take public other parts of the company. 

Since the start of 2025, WBA is up 17.8%, cutting into its now 46.6% year-over-year deficit. The stock's record high of $97.30 was nearly 10 years ago, and the shares have finished with annual losses for the past three years. 

Options bulls are targeting the stock today, with 54,000 calls exchanged so far -- quadruple the call volume typically seen at this point -- in comparison to 8,267 puts. The March 11 call is the most popular, with new positions opening there. 

Some short covering could provide tailwinds for the stock's bounce, too. Short interest represents 9.4% of the stock's available float. 

Published on Mar 4, 2025 at 10:39 AM
  • Commodities
  • Editor's Pick
 
Published on Feb 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Updated on Mar 4, 2025 at 10:30 AM
  • Indicator of the Week

Begin the New Year With Schaeffer's 7 FREE 2022 Stock Picks!

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