Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 20, 2025 at 10:33 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Accenture PLC (NYSE:ACN) and Five Below Inc (NASDAQ:FIVE) stocks are making significant moves following their latest earnings reports.

Accenture stock was last seen down 9.5% at $293.72, hitting its lowest level since July after reporting a slight fiscal second-quarter earnings miss alongside a revenue beat. The consulting firm also raised the lower end of its full-year earnings forecast, but a 3% year-over-year decline in new bookings to $20.9 billion weighed on investor sentiment. Year-to-date, ACN has shed 15.9%.

Meanwhile, Five Below stock is up 5.7% at $79.88 after delivering a fourth-quarter earnings beat. The discount retailer also posted a smaller-than-expected 3% decline in same-store sales, compared to analyst projections of a 3.3% drop. Additionally, Five Below issued strong fiscal first-quarter revenue guidance of $905 million to $925 million, exceeding the FactSet consensus estimate of $897 million. On the charts, FIVE remains pressured at the $80 level while carrying a 24.1% year-to-date deficit.

Options traders are reacting to both earnings events. ACN has seen 7,129 calls and 9,009 puts exchanged — 10 times its intraday average volume — while FIVE has already logged 11,000 calls and 9,698 puts, 16 times its usual activity.

Published on Mar 20, 2025 at 10:17 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shares of electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) are sinking this morning, off 2.6% at $11.06, at last check. Driving the shares lower is a downgrade to "neutral" from "overweight" and price-target cut to $13 from $19 out of Piper Sandler, the brokerage citing unidentifiable growth catalysts for 2025, brushing off the company's broader strategic strengths.

RIVN posted a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss back in February, but the beat was overshadowed by a grim delivery forecast for this calendar year. Today's pullback has pushed the shares below their year-over-year breakeven mark, with overhead resistance looming at the formerly supportive 260-day moving average.

Analysts were leaning bearish ahead of today's session, with 17 of 27 in coverage maintaining a tepid "hold" or worse recommendation. However, more bear notes could be in store, with 10 brokerages carrying a "buy" or "strong buy," and the stock's average 12-month price target of $14.89 sitting at a 31% premium to Wednesday's close.

Digging deeper, options traders have been optimistic, meaning an unwind could fuel more headwinds. Specifically, the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 3.85 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the highest percentile of its annual range. Further, RIVN's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.57 sits in the 6th percentile of readings from the past year.

Published on Mar 20, 2025 at 9:07 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2025 at 4:52 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
  • Analyst Update
  • Buzz Stocks

President Donald Trump's plans to create a strategic crypto reserve generated sector tailwinds earlier this month. Below, let's take a closer look at how shares of Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN), Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ:HUT), and MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) have been faring since that announcement.

COIN is up 3.9% to trade at $187.81 at last check, after Bernstein yesterday initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating and set its price objective at $310, implying roughly 70% upside. The shares have been testing support at the $180 mark since pulling back to their lowest level since early November. Though the equity is today pacing for a close in the black, it still carries a 25.6% year-to-date deficit.

HUT s 4.8% higher to trade at $12.65 at last glance, attempting to distance itself from a March 10 drawdown to its lowest level since October. The 20-day moving average has been acting as an area of resistance since late January, and so far in 2025 the equity has shed 38.4%.

MSTR was last seen down 5.4% to trade at $298.50, looking to add to its 107.8% year-over-year lead, now swinging into the black year-to-date. The stock has been struggling to recover from the pullback it suffered after hitting a record peak of $543 in November, but support at the $240 region remains firmly in place.

Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 1:18 PM
  • Earnings Preview

Semiconductor maker Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) is set to report fiscal second-quarter earnings after the close on Thursday, March 20. Analysts expect revenue of $7.9 billion, marking a 36% year-over-year increase, with adjusted earnings projected at $1.43 per share -- up from $0.42 per share a year ago.

MU has had mixed post-earnings reactions in recent quarters. The stock plummeted 16.2% following its December report but jumped 14.8% after its September results. This time around, options traders are pricing in a 14.9% swing, regardless of direction, which is well above MU’s historical 9.6% post-earnings move.

Ahead of earnings, Micron stock is trading fractionally higher, last seen at $101.90. The equity rallied sharply from April to June, hitting a record high of $157.53 on June 18, before declining through September. Since then, MU has been stuck in a sideways range between $80 and $110. Despite shedding 33.4% in the last nine months, the stock still boasts a 21.4% year-to-date gain.

MU Chart March 192025

Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with 27 of 30 rating MU a "buy" or better. However, options traders are notably bearish. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MU's 50-day put/call volume ratio ranks in the 87th percentile of annual readings, signaling heightened pessimism in the options pits.

Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2025 at 12:12 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are rallying ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, due out later this afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are sporting triple-digit midday gains, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is firmly higher as well. While the Fed is not expected to make adjustments this month, investors hope to learn whether plans remain to cut rates twice this year. They are also hoping to hear the Fed's projections for unemployment, inflation, and gross domestic product (GDP).

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • Signet Jewelers stock shines after quarterly win.
  • Possible HIV funding cut dings pharma stock.
  • Plus, WSM brushes off strong quarter; why Boeing stock is surging; and fintech stock gapping lower.

MMC Stats 0319

Williams-Sonoma Inc(NYSE:WSM) stock is seeing unusual options activity today, with 6,327 calls and 9,312 puts exchanged so far, which is 11 times the volume typically seen at this point. The most active contract is the March 160 put, but new positions are being opened at the 150 put in that same series. WSM was last seen down 11.7% to trade at $152.16 -- its lowest level since November. The home goods retailer's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat was pushed aside following a grim annual forecast. Williams-Sonoma stock has already shed 18.5% in 2025.

Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) stock is leading the DJI today, last seen up 6.7% to trade at $172.30. Today's pop follows comments from CFO Brian West, who said at an investor conference that the company is in "fantastic" shape to make 38 of its 737 Max planes a month. BA could today mark its sixth gain in the last seven sessions, as well as its best day since July 2023. Moving back above its 20-day moving average, BA sports a 10.6% six-month lead.

BA 20 Day

HealthEquity Inc (NASDAQ:HQY) stock is one of the worst name on the Nasdaq today, gapping 19.1% lower to trade at $82.43, at last check. While the fintech name surpassed revenue estimates for the fourth quarter, profits missed the mark. Shares are looking to snap a three-day win streak with their biggest single-day percentage loss since December 2021, and earlier slipped to their lowest level since October. HQY is down 16% so far this year.

Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2025 at 11:34 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 10:37 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Pharmaceutical stock Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ:GILD) is down 2.6% at $107.34, after news that domestic HIV prevention is under review by the Trump administration, and the Health and Human Services Department could significantly cut funds. Gilead makes and manufactures several drugs to treat HIV and AIDS. 

On the charts, GILD has been pulling back since its recent March 10 nine-year high of $119.96, now headed for its seventh loss in eight sessions. Trading at its lowest level since mid-February, the equity remains up 46.2% year-over-year and 16.3% year-to-date. 

Options bears are targeting GILD after the news, with 3,000 puts exchanged so far today, representing double the amount typically seen at this point. The March 103 put is the most popular, with new positions being bought to open there. 

Puts have been more popular than usual leading up to today, too. GILD's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.95 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 99% of readings from the past year. 

Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 10:17 AM
  • Analyst Update

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) stock was last seen down 1.1% at $546.02 after Oppenheimer downgraded the banking giant to "perform" from "outperform." The firm pointed to sluggish merger and acquisition activity as a major headwind for GS, noting the lack of a clear rebound in dealmaking.

There's room for more downgrades, too, which could further pressure the stock. Coming into today, 13 of the 23 analysts covering GS rated it a "strong buy." There's also potential for price-target cuts, considering the 12-month consensus target of $654.56 comes in at an 18.6% premium to last night's close.

A shift in options traders' sentiment could also weigh on Goldman Sachs stock. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.74 ranks in the 75th percentile of annual readings, indicating a preference for bullish bets.

On the charts, GS has dropped 16.6% over the past month, pressured by its 10-day moving average. Though it boasts a 41.7% year-over-year gain, it's down 3.8% in 2025, after falling from its Feb. 18 all-time high of $672.19. However, the $525 level appears to be forming a floor of support.

Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 10:06 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Mar 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • Indicator of the Week

There has been a momentous shift in sentiment among the investment newsletter class. For the first time in nearly two and a half years, the Investors Intelligence (II) survey shows more newsletters are bearish on stocks than bullish. II has data going back to the 1970s and tracks over 100 independent newsletters, categorizing them as bullish, bearish, or short-term bearish but longer-term bullish. With decades of historical data, the survey provides valuable insight into how investment professionals perceive the market. This week, I’m examining what these sentiment shifts have meant for stocks going forward.

Bears Overtake Bulls

The chart below shows the collapse of bullish sentiment relative to bearish sentiment in the II poll. The last time the bulls-minus-bears line was below 0%, indicating more bearish newsletters than bullish, was late 2022. Looking at the chart, it appears that when most newsletters are bearish, the market is at or near a buying opportunity.

SPXIIPoll

To back this up with data, I examined past instances where the bulls-minus-bears reading dropped below 0% for the first time in at least six months. Since the early 1970s, this has occurred 24 times. The table below summarizes the S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) performance following these signals.

The results confirm what the chart suggests. The SPX has averaged a gain of almost 12% over the next six months after these signals, with 83% of those returns positive. For comparison, the typical six-month return for the index has been 4.54%, with 70% of returns positive. In every timeframe, from one month to one year, the SPX has outperformed its typical historical returns after the II survey shows more bears than bulls.

SPX After II Bears Overtake Bull

Another way to look at the data reinforces the idea that the II poll is a contrarian buy signal. When the bulls-minus-bears reading has been negative, as it is now, the SPX has averaged a 14% gain over the next year. When bullish sentiment moderately outpaces bearish sentiment, the index has averaged an 8.5% gain. When newsletters are overwhelmingly bullish, the index has averaged just a 7.35% return over the next year. The S&P 500 has consistently outperformed across all timeframes when the II survey reflects more bearish than bullish sentiment. If history repeats, this trend suggests a buying opportunity in the current market.

Average SPX return based on II Bulls

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