After sharp market pullbacks like the one we’ve just experienced, it’s common for investors to feel frozen and uncertain whether to act and/or how to act. It leaves some big questions. Has the market bottomed? Should I focus on the beaten-down stocks in hopes of a rebound, or stick with the ones that held up well as a sign of underlying strength? The data I’ve gathered below might give us some confidence in how to proceed and help us get over the paralysis 

Finding Similar Pullbacks 

My goal is to find similar market pullbacks and then find which stocks performed the best going forward based on whether they were underperformers or outperformers during the downturn. When I ran the numbers the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was about 15% off the high which occurred about two months ago. I went back ten years, and I found three separate times the SPX sat about 15% below the prior all-time high which had occurred about two months prior. Using current S&P 500 stocks, I found the 50 best and 50 worst performing stocks during each pullback then tracked how they did going forward. For those curious, below are the dates of the pullbacks I used.

Underperformers vs. Outperformers

The table below shows the performance of the stocks that did the best and worst during the previously mentioned pullbacks. There is a very clear winner here. The stocks that were most beaten down during the prior couple of months performed best over the next month. Those beaten down stocks averaged a return of almost 11% over the next month with 85% of them positive and an impressive 72% beating the SPX over the next month. The stocks that held up the best during the broad market pullback averaged a return of 2.17% over the next month and a measly 23% of them beating the SPX.

Next, I have three tables which break down the data above by each individual pullback. The first table shows the data for the 2018 pullback (see above for the specific dates of the pullbacks), the second table shows the 2020 pullback then the last table shows the data for the pullback in 2022. The worst performers during the pullback crushed the best performers over the next month in all three of those instances.

Stocks to Target

Getting a list of stocks to target is straightforward. The list of stocks below is simply the 50 worst performing S&P 500 stocks since February 19, 2025. That’s the date of the most recent all-time high for the SPX. Based on the analysis above, it’s the worst performing stocks since the top of the market that do the best over the next month.

Amid broad-market pressure, bank giant JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) has pulled back sharply from its Feb. 19 record high of $280.25. After the stock's April 11 post-earnings pop, JPM preceded to give back that 8.1% gain all within the next week. Despite ceding its year-to-date breakeven level and nursing a 4.3% quarterly deficit, the pullback has JPM testing a historically bullish trendline.

The shares are within one standard deviation of their 260-day moving average, a trendline that, per Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, JPM had encountered for the first time in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. Within these parameters, two other signals occurred in the past three years. JPM was higher one month later 100% of the time after these events, averaging a 6.7% gain.  

The equity is still holding on to a 23.7% year-over-year gain. Plus, an unwinding of recent pessimism in the options pits could provide tailwinds as well. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), JPM's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.95 ranks higher than 91% of readings from the past year, showing puts being picked up at a much faster rate than usual. 

One of the sneaky-best exchange-traded funds (ETFs) today is homebuilder sector-based iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), last seen up 3.3% to trade at $90.39. Doing most of the heavy lifting is PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM), after the homebuilder reported a first-quarter earnings and revenue beat. CEO Larry Mastrovich also noted that they expect tariffs to have a 1% impact on average sale price, with the hits coming by the fourth quarter.

At last check, PHM was up 8.1% to trade at $100.68, on track for the equity's best single-session gain since January 2023. The shares have been carving a channel of lower lows since an Oct. 21 all-time high of $149.47, and are today testing their 50-day moving average, a trendline that's served as pressure since November. Year-to-date, the stock's deficit is down to 7.7%. 

PHM options traders have been targeting puts with gusto. This is per PHM's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.90 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), that ranks in the 78th percentile of its annual range. This indicates a much healthier-than-usual appetite for long puts of late. Echoing this, the stock's Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.47 sits in the 81st percentile of its annual range, meaning short-term option traders have rarely been more put-biased. 

Stocks are higher this afternoon, with all three major indexes bouncing back from Monday’s steep selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are up triple digits and looking to snap four-day losing streaks, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is also sporting a solid gain.

Traders are brushing off renewed attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, turning their attention instead to upbeat earnings from 3M (MMM) as they eye Tesla's (TSLA) report, which is due out after the closing bell. Gold futures surged to a new intraday peak earlier this morning, and Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $90,000 as ETFs that track its price reported the biggest daily inflows since January.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• Can gold prices keep up the momentum?
• Top- and bottom-line beat couldn't save Verizon stock.
• Plus, GE options pop after earnings; FSLR surges on tariff news; and MDP brushed off quarterly win.

GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) is seeing higher-than-usual options activity after earnings. So far, 27,000 calls and 8,189 puts have changed hands -- 4 and 2 times the average intraday volume, respectively. Traders are targeting the May 210 call and the weekly 5/2 190-strike call, with new positions opening at both. GE Aerospace topped earnings expectations with adjusted profits of $1.49 per share, though revenue slightly missed analyst estimates. Last seen 4% higher at $185.50, GE is now 10.9% higher year to date.

First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) stock is one of the top performers on the IXIC today, last seen 11.5% higher at $136.52. The solar stock is surging after U.S. trade officials finalized steep new tariffs on most solar cells imported from Southeast Asia. The decision concludes a year-long trade dispute brought on by First Solar, Hanwha Qcells, and other U.S. producers alleging unfair pricing by Chinese firms. Up 8.8% this quarter, FSLR still has ground to cover to erase its 22% year-to-date deficit.

Medpace Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MEDP) is one of the worst-performing IXIC stocks this afternoon, last seen down 5.3% at $273.56. The clinical research firm reported $500 million in net new business awards for the first quarter, a 18.8% year-over-year drop. The stock is brushing off a first-quarter earnings and revenue beat to trade at its lowest level since November 2023, after being rejected by its 20-day moving average. MEDP is now down 27.8% year-over-year.

Shares of RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX) are down 9% at $114.75 at last glance, despite the firm's better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue. Disappointing sales guidance is weighing on the stock, after the company warned of a potential $850 million hit due to tariffs. CEO Chris Calio acknowledge the "clearly very dynamic" environment, but said the company is well positioned. 

Before today's bear gap, RTX was having trouble breaking above the $130 level, a familiar line of both support and pressure this year. Long-term support at the 320-day moving average lingers below, however. Year over year, the stock remains up 13.6%.

Over in the options pits, RTX has seen 4 times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The weekly 4/25 115-strike put is the most popular, with positions being opened there. 

Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC) was last seen down 11.9% to trade at $467, headed for its worst day since 2008. The company's first-quarter earnings and revenue missed expectations after booking losses on its B-21 stealth bomber program amid higher manufacturing costs. The aerospace and defense name slashed its guidance as well.

Falling sharply from last week's roughly six-month highs, NOC is just below its year-to-date and year-over-year breakeven levels. The equity is seeing triple its average options volume, with new positions opening at the most popular June 525 call. 

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is down 7.1% to trade at $224.28 at last glance, one of the worst-performing Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) components today. Barclays lowered its price objective on the equity to $275 from $325, citing “confusing” earnings visibility ahead of the electric vehicle (EV) company’s first-quarter report, which is due out after the close tomorrow, April 22. What's more, Reuters reported production of its cheaper, U.S.-made Model Y car is delayed.

Carrying a steep 44.4% year-to-date deficit, the shares are now on track for their third-straight daily loss. Overhead pressure at the $280 level has been stifling TSLA since early March, while longer-term resistance stems from the declining 40-day moving average. 

The security was also one of the most popular names among options traders over the last 10 days, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks that attracted the highest options volume within that period. TSLA saw more than 13.4 million calls and 13.2 million puts traded. The most active contract was the April 240 put.

From an earnings standpoint, Tesla stock tends to underperform, finishing six of its last eight next-day sessions lower. However, it's also worth noting the security just had back-to-back positive post-earnings reactions. In the last two years, TSLA averaged an 11.3% move, regardless of direction. This time around, the options pits are pricing in a 14.7% swing.

Options look like like a solid way to bet on TSLA's next moves. The stock's  Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 80 out of 100, suggesting it outperformed options traders' volatility expectations during the past 12 months.

Shares of fast-casual restaurant name Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) are 5.1% lower at $45.70 this afternoon, just ahead of its first-quarter earnings report, due out after the close on Wednesday, April 23. Amid broad-market pressure, today's dip comes after the company made headlines for announcing its first-ever expansion into Mexico. Chipotle plans to open a location in Mexico City early next year in partnership with Alsea -- a move that could signal a larger push into international markets.

Per Zacks Research, analysts expect Chipotle to report earnings of 28 cents per share on $2.93 billion in revenue -- marking year-over-year gains of 3.7% and 8.5%, respectively. The stock has a mixed earnings reaction history, averaging a 6.6% move in either direction over the past eight quarters. This time around, the options market is pricing in a much larger next-day swing of 11.7%.

Chipotle stock has been stuck in a steady downtrend for most of 2025, with recent rally attempts consistently rejected at its 40-day moving average. Fresh off its third weekly loss in four, the equity is now down 24.9% year-to-date and 20.6% over the last 12 months.

Ahead of the event, BofA Global Research lowered its price target on CMG to $64 from $71 -- though that still represents a roughly 40% premium to current levels. More downward revisions could follow, as the stock’s average 12-month price objective stands at $63.

The stock’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 25 out of 100 -- suggesting the stock has tended to underperform the volatility expectations priced into its options. For traders expecting a post-earnings breakout, that low SVS reading may warrant caution.