Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 10:40 AM
  • Analyst Update

Medical equipment stock Myriad Genetics Inc (NASDAQ:MYGN) was last seen up 9.8% at $11.25, after an upgrade from Piper Sandler to "overweight" from "neutral," with a price-target hike to $12.50 from $11.50. The firm noted an attractive entry point following the stock's extended pullback, and cited the CEO change, as Sam Raha will replace Paul Diaz on April 30. 

Today's surge builds on MYGN’s 6.8% gain in the previous session, following its March 10 five-year low of $9.24. The stock broke below support at $12 after a late-February post-earnings bear gap, which it has yet to fully recover from. Over the last six months, MYGN has plunged 57.8%.

Short sellers have been increasing their bets, with short interest now accounting for 6.1% of the stock's available float. Meanwhile, Myriad Genetics’ 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 22.7 signals the stock is deep in "oversold" territory.

Despite MYGN’s struggles, 10 of the 17 analysts in coverage still maintain a "hold" or worse rating. However, the 12-month consensus price target of $17.41 represents a 54.7% premium to current levels, suggesting potential room for upside.

 

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 10:36 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

The latest U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are already sending ripples through Wall Street, and putting major metal producers Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE) and Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) in focus. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported metals took effect Wednesday, sparking immediate retaliation from the European Union (EU) and market volatility. While Trump initially threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, he backed off after Ontario suspended its 25% surtax on U.S. electricity exports. 

Nucor stock was last seen 0.6% lower at $129.12, pulling back from its premarket gain. Despite fears of a trade war and its impact on metal stocks, NUE has gained 10.6% year-to-date, with its 50-day moving average moving in as support.

Alcoa stock was up 2.7% at $32.82 at last glance. However, AA has struggled this year, down 13% year-to-date. Earlier this month, the stock hit its lowest level since early September, though today’s pop helped it reclaim its 10-day moving average.

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 10:27 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Jefferies downgraded PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP) stock to "hold" from "buy," and cut its price target to $170 from $171. The analyst in coverage cited limited upside potential amid a soft beverages market.

Analysts were divided on PEP coming into today, with 10 calling it a tepid "hold" or worse, while 10 said "strong buy." Should more firms swing to the bearish side, the security could dip even lower.

The shares are on track for their third loss in the last four sessions, and have fallen more than 15% in the last six months. A ceiling at the $160 region has rejected the last three rally attempts off a retest of the stock's Jan. 10, four-year low of $141.51, while today's dip is pressuring the stock back below the 20-day moving average. 

Over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), PepsiCo stock sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 6.95 that sits higher than all annual readings. This means options traders have been much more bullish than usual in the last two weeks.

It's worth noting that PEP's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 71 out of 100 indicates it tends to outperform volatility expectations, making it an interesting play for premium buyers.

Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 9:18 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Mar 12, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Updated on Mar 12, 2025 at 8:00 AM
  • Indicator of the Week

Last week, I covered the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and its 5% declines. Yesterday, that pullback deepened to 10%, officially entering correction territory. In my previous article, I included data on how the index historically performed after such declines. This week, my focus shifts to the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), which has been in correction territory since last week. Unlike the S&P 500, the Nasdaq is more volatile and tech-heavy, containing nearly 3,000 stocks compared to the S&P’s 500.

Nasdaq After Corrections

Historical data suggests that IXIC corrections have often been buying opportunities. After a 10% pullback, the index has averaged a 3% gain over the next month, with 78% of returns positive -- far better than its typical 1.1% gain and 63% positivity rate for the same timeframe since 1990.

The real sweet spot comes three to six months after a correction signal. Six months post-correction, the IXIC has averaged a 16% gain, with 78% of returns positive. When the index moved higher over that period, the average return was over 23%. Notably, in 18 of the 23 corrections since 1990, the IXIC never fell into bear market territory (-20%) before reaching a new all-time high.

 Nasdaq Pullbacks

Slow Bleed vs. Violent Pullback

This latest correction has been unusually drawn out, taking 51 trading days to reach the 10% decline -- the longest stretch among all 24 historical pullbacks.

Historically, faster corrections (20 days or less) tend to produce stronger short-term rebounds, averaging a 3.1% gain over the next two weeks, with 92% of instances positive. Slower corrections, like the current one, see more muted short-term bounces, averaging a 1.3% gain with 60% positivity.

However, over longer timeframes, slower pullbacks tend to outperform at the one-month and one-year marks, while faster declines lead to better three- and six-month returns.

With the IXIC’s longest correction build-up in history, it remains to be seen whether this drawn-out decline will follow its historical pattern of stronger long-term recoveries.

Nasdaq Pullbacks Timeframe

Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Traders are viewing the recent market selloff as an opportunity to buy tech stocks on the dip, with CrowdStrike (CRWD) among the names drawing attention. Cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW) also presents an intriguing opportunity, as the stock just pulled back to a trendline that has historically produced positive returns.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, PANW stock is now within striking distance of its 260-day moving average, a move that has typically resulted in positive returns. This follows a prolonged period above this trendline (defined by White as 80% of the time in the past two months and eight of the last 10 trading days). A similar move occurred five times in the last three years, after which the security was higher one month later each time, averaging a 10.7% gain.
 
PANW 60 Day
 
PANW was last seen up 3.9% to trade at $180.57, so a move of similar magnitude would set it just shy of the $200 level, nearly closing the pullback from its Feb. 19, all-time high of $208.19. Longer term, Palo Alto Networks stock still sports a 27.1% year-over-year lead.
 
At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 50-day call/put volume ratio ratio of 2.28 ranks higher than 93% of annuals readings. This indicates options traders have been much more bullish than usual in the last 10 weeks.
Published on Mar 6, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Updated on Mar 11, 2025 at 12:54 PM
  • The Week Ahead
 
Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 12:33 PM
  • Earnings Preview

Shares of Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) are down 3.3% at $342.97 at last check, as investors brace for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, set for release after the close on Thursday, March 13. Analysts expect the retailer to share earnings of $7.05 per share, marking a 12.8% decline from the prior year, while revenue is projected at $3.46 billion, a 2.8% drop year-over-year. For fiscal 2024, the top line is expected to tick up 0.5% to $11.26 billion.

Ulta Beauty’s post-earnings history has been mixed, with the stock finishing higher after four of its last eight next-day sessions, including a 9% jump back in December. This time around, options traders anticipate an 11.3% swing, regardless of direction, nearly double its 6.1% two-year average move.

On the charts, ULTA is cooling from its Jan. 7 surge to $460, its highest level since April. Losses accelerated in early February, when the 20-day moving average began acting as resistance. With just two weekly wins on the board for 2025, Ulta Beauty stock is now down 20.8% for the year.

ULTA Chart March 112025

Options traders remain bullish ahead of the event, as evidenced by the stock’s 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.01 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) — a reading that sits in the 90th percentile of its annual range. This means long calls are being picked up at a faster-than-usual clip.

Analyst sentiment remains divided, with 12 of 28 in coverage rating the stock a “strong buy”, two a “buy”, and 13 a “hold”, while one firm calls it a “strong sell”. Meanwhile, short interest has increased 10.2% in the last two reporting periods, with the shares sold short now accounting for 5.9% of ULTA’s total available float.

Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Updated on Mar 11, 2025 at 12:18 PM
  • Midday Market Check

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was last seen down triple digits, after President Donald Trump said he would hike Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% from 25%, effective tomorrow. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is also lower as traders weigh economic concerns following Trump's latest comments, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is modestly higher after yesterday marking its worst loss since 2022.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • Why Lennar stock could see more bear notes.
  • 2 retail stocks in hot water after profit warnings.
  • Plus, tech stock eyes worst day ever; investors buy CRWD's dip; and why EXPE is sinking.

MMC Stats 0311

Asana Inc (NYSE:ASAN) is seeing unusual options activity today, with 4,747 calls and 9,124 puts traded so far, which is 8 times the intraday average volume. The most active contract is the weekly 3/14 14-strike put. ASAN is down 27.7% to trade at $12.06 at last glance, brushing off a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat as it paces for its worst day on record. Today's negative price action follows weak guidance and news that CEO Dustin Moskovitz will retire. ASAN earlier hit its lowest level since December, and shed 40.8% so far in 2025.

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:CRWD) stock is one of the best SPX components today, last seen up 4.7% to trade at $323.43. Traders look to be buying the dip, after the stock yesterday hit its lowest level since November as it extended a pullback from its Feb. 19, record high of $455.59. Shares added 29.8% in the last six months, and are on track to snap a five-day losing streak following their break below the 220-day moving average.

CRWD 200 Day

Expedia Group Inc (NASDAQ:EXPE) is one of the worst stocks on the SPX today, last seen down 7.9% at $162.75 after Delta Air Lines (DAL) lowered its outlook, citing weak domestic travel demand. EXPE is eyeing its worst single-day percentage loss since May, and could today notch its third negative session in four. EXPE is also trading at its lowest level since November, despite notching a Feb. 10, four-year high of $207.74 and sporting an 18.2% year-over-year lead.

Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 11:54 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Commodities
 
Published on Mar 11, 2025 at 10:52 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Retail earnings are in focus this week ahead of Friday's consumer confidence data. As stock market sentiment shifts beneath investors' feet, both Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS) and Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) issued disappointing 2025 guidance that is overshadowing robust current-quarter numbers.

Kohl's stock is brushing off upbeat fourth-quarter earnings and revenue numbers on dismal annual sales and profit guidance, down 16.6% at $10.02 at last glance and earlier hitting a 28-year low of $9.88. Year over year, the security is down 27.7%.

Over in the options pits, KSS has seen 14,000 calls and 12,000 puts exchanged so far -- five times the options volume typically seen at this point. The December 7.50 call is the most popular, where new positions are being bought to open. 

Dick's Sporting Goods stock is similarly brushing off a strong fourth quarter after its lower-than-expected sales guidance, though the stock isn't faring quite as badly -- down 0.3% at $210.43 at last check. The equity is down 8% since the start of 2025, but still holding on to a 16% year-over-year lead. 

DKS has seen 2,249 calls and 3,228 puts cross the tape, six times the options volume typically seen at this point. The March 200 put is the most popular, followed by the March 205 put, with new positions being bought to open at the latter. 

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